It's Origin time.
Queensland will host New South Wales in this year's opener at a jam-packed Suncorp Stadium.
Can the Maroons make home advantage count as they look to win back the shield?
Or can the Blues, under the guidance of new coach Laurie Daley, get the job done?
MORE STATE OF ORIGIN COVERAGE:
- Confirmed Blues and Maroons team lists for Game 1
- Who are the referees for the Origin opener?
- How did State of Origin unfold last year?
Below are The Sporting News' predictions and best bets for Game I – all odds per bookmaker Sportsbet.
Dearden to spark narrow Maroons win
According to Sportsbet, 10 of the last 14 Origin openers have gone under the total points line.
If we have a cagey, physical affair on Wednesday, the bench players could be the difference.
While NSW's interchange is arguably stronger overall, Tom Dearden has the potential to be a game-changer for Queensland.
The exciting playmaker loves breaking matches open and has the speed and creativity required to take advantage of a tired defence.
Ben Hunt has previously thrived in a similar utility role, so keep an eye out for Dearden in Brisbane.
BEST BET: Either team by 8 or less ($2.05)
VALUE BET: Tom Dearden anytime tryscorer ($8.75)
SAME GAME MULTI: Queensland 1-12 / Under 41.5 points / Xavier Coates anytime tryscorer ($9.75)
Queensland to get off to a quick start in opener
Queensland will have revenge firmly on their minds after being stunned 14-4 in Game III at Suncorp last year.
The loss was the first time the Maroons were beaten on home soil in a decider since 2005 as NSW landed a major blow on their rivals.
Billy Slater has responded by bringing in several fresh faces, and the coach will be drilling into his side the importance of getting off to a strong start this year with trips to Perth and Sydney on the horizon.
Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow was at the heart of everything in attack for QLD in 2024, with the Dolphins flyer crossing for a hat-trick in Game I, while also bagging a four-pointer in Game II.
With Kalyn Ponga stationed in the No.1 jersey for the first time since the 2022 decider, there could be plenty of space on the edge for the 'Hammer' to exploit.
BEST BET: Queensland to score first ($2.03)
VALUE BET: Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow first, second or third tryscorer ($4.50)
SAME GAME MULTI: Latrell Mitchell anytime tryscorer / Over 40.5 points ($3.60)
Welcome to Trellcorp
- Tom Naghten
There is no tougher baptism of fire for a centre than a fired-up Latrell Mitchell in State of Origin and that's exactly what Maroons debutant Robert Toia has in front of him.
The Roosters youngster was called in to the Queensland camp after just 10 first-grade games and Mitchell will be licking his lips at the prospect of testing him out, particularly on the outside of Angus Crichton, who himself seems to find another gear while in a Blues jumper.
Add in the scrumbase combination of Nathan Cleary and Mitchell Moses, who possess arguably the two best kicking games in rugby league, NSW will almost certainly have enough of the ball in good field position, giving their strike weapons plenty of opportunity.
BEST BET: NSW -3.5 points ($1.90)
VALUE BET: Latrell Mitchell first, second or third tryscorer ($4.50)
SAME GAME MULTI: NSW H2H / Latrell Mitchell 1st, 2nd or 3rd tryscorer / Angus Crichton anytime tryscorer ($24)
Back-five brilliance
- Tobey Lewis
New South Wales have a daunting task ahead of them, playing at Suncorp for Game 1.
The adrenaline build up of playing in front of a pack of die-hard Maroons fans will likely be very draining.
In response, Laurie Daley has picked a backline that specialises in yardage and will lean on those players to give their forwards a rest so they can load up in defence.
With the amount of debutants in their side, Queensland may struggle to keep up with the arm-wrestle that the Blues will try to engage them in.
Once fatigue begins to set in, the class of Latrell Mitchell and Stephen Crichton with time and space is a frightening prospect for every fan north of the border.
BEST BET: Latrell Mitchell anytime tryscorer ($2.35)
VALUE BET: Latrell Mitchell/Stephen Crichton to combine for 2+ tries ($4.50)
SAME GAME MULTI: New South Wales 1 to 12 / Under (+40.5) / New South Wales to win both halves ($13.50)