Arch Manning is already one of the most popular quarterbacks in college football, and he hasn't even started a full season yet. The buzz surrounding the Texas signal caller is only growing louder as NFL teams begin eyeing him as a future franchise cornerstone.
Despite having just two career starts, Manning's last name and the expectations tied to playing for a College Football Playoff contender like Texas have fueled the hype. If he shines in 2025 as the Longhorns’ starter, many expect him to declare early for the NFL Draft.
While most way-too-early mock drafts project Manning as the No. 1 overall pick — often linking him to the New Orleans Saints in a full-circle moment tied to his grandfather Archie — not everyone sees him going first. Pro Football Network’s latest mock has Manning slipping to No. 9 overall to the Las Vegas Raiders.
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“Geno Smith gives the Las Vegas Raiders a huge upgrade at quarterback for the 2025 season, but he turns 35 in October and has a potential out after 2026,” PFN wrote. “That’s the perfect opportunity to draft a quarterback early next year and have him sit for a year or two behind Smith.”
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Smith signed a two-year, $75 million deal with Las Vegas after being traded from Seattle earlier this offseason. Adding Manning to that scenario would allow him to develop behind a veteran, but seeing the Texas QB fall that far would be shocking given his pedigree.
According to PFN, Manning still needs to sharpen his footwork and awareness under pressure, but they praised his athleticism, field vision, and arm strength.
If Manning does declare for the 2026 draft, it would likely mean he led the Longhorns on a deep postseason run.
“(Leaving for the NFL) would be a great thing for Texas because that means he probably won the national title,” Bruce Feldman said on The Rich Eisen Show. “They would be my preseason pick to win the national title. They've done really well in the portal and everyone I trust inside Texas has been glowing about Arch.”
Still, not everyone is convinced Manning will jump early. Sports Illustrated’s Albert Breer believes the quarterback could not enter the draft until 2027 or 2028.