NFL teams not sold on Arch Manning with key ‘threshold’ still unmet by Texas QB

Shane Shoemaker

NFL teams not sold on Arch Manning with key ‘threshold’ still unmet by Texas QB image

Just as soon as the 2025 NFL Draft concluded, people couldn't wait to post their 2026 draft predictions. To no surprise, a lot of those consisted of Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning topping those lists.

In CBS Sports' Josh Edwards’ mock, he has Manning going No. 1 overall to the New Orleans Saints, perhaps fulfilling a part of the legacy his grandfather Arch started with his NFL career decades ago.

SI's Albert Breer said in his Monday column that even though there is great excitement surrounding the Longhorns signal-caller, "it's time to stop the madness on Arch Manning."

Breer goes in length about Manning, who, no doubt, is both talented and popular entering the 2025 season, which in turn has given off Tim Tebow-like hype similar to the former Gators quarterback’s days at Florida.

However, he says that all NFL teams really think about Manning right now is that he's a "great story."

"I get it. Everyone’s excited. You should be. It’s a great story," Breer said. "But, for now, for NFL teams, that’s really all it is. There’s not anywhere near enough to go on to know whether he’ll be a top-five pick or a fifth-rounder down the line. Lots of folks thought Quinn Ewers, whom Manning is succeeding at Texas, was destined to be a first-round pick when he became Texas’s starter in 2022. He went in the seventh round."

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Ewers had long been projected to be one of the top quarterbacks in this year's draft, going into last season. However, injuries and inconsistencies perhaps led to his draft plummet that landed him with the Miami Dolphins in the seventh round.

One thing Breer says NFL teams will greatly take into account is the number of starts — which is just at two thus far for Manning.

"You’d like to watch a quarterback in double-digit games to really evaluate them," an AFC college scouting director told Breer.

Breer stated that "ideally," NFL teams are looking at quarterbacks coming out of college with at least 25 starts under their belt. That gives them a large enough sample size to fully assess them.

Even if Manning were to play a full season this year — including the SEC Championship and a College Football Playoff run to the national title game — that would still only give him 16 additional starts.

Should Manning lead the Longhorns to a national title, though, that could entice him to head off to the NFL early, said The Athletic's Bruce Feldman.

“(Leaving for the NFL) would be a great thing for Texas because that means he probably won the national title," Feldman said on The Rich Eisen Show. "They would be my preseason pick to win the national title. They've done really well in the portal and everyone I trust inside Texas has been glowing about Arch."

Still, Breer believes it's more likely that Manning declares in either 2027 or 2028.

Shane Shoemaker

Shane Shoemaker began his career as an editorial writer for ClutchPoints, covering college football, the NFL and MLB. His love for sports took off at age 5, when his dad began taking him all over the country to watch the Atlanta Braves and later, the Miami Hurricanes football team — fueling his passion for experiencing new stadiums. Although a lifelong Tennessean, he remains unaffiliated with local teams, even after writing for Vols Wire. Shane holds a BA in Communications/Journalism from the University of Tennessee-Chattanooga and never misses a chance to mention the Atlanta Braves’ 2021 World Series win.