One instance in which there's a big disparity between seasoned and novice football bettors is in Super Bowl prop wagering. A first-time bettor, as they often do with the moneyline on a game like this, are looking for bets with good payouts at plus money.
A seasoned bettor, however, is looking for value anywhere he can find it and in this game it's coming in the form of big favorites. That's why prop bets like "Will there be a successful 2-point conversion?" have gotten a ton of tickets on YES, but more money on NO. The same often goes for "Will the game go to overtime?"
MORE: NFL live odds page
More props: The 50 weirdest | QBs | TDs | Penalties
Below are William Hill's 20 most-bet props, both in ticket count and money. The squares are laying small money on a handful of longshots, like Panthers -10.5, -14.5 and -17.5, while sharper bettors are laying bigger money on the Panthers' alternate lines as an underdog.
Bettors are also hammering Cam Newton's MVP prop, driving it from -120 to -140. Nearly 50 percent of the money on MVP is on the Panthers' QB.
Most-bet props, ticket count
Will there be a successful 2-point conversion? YES (+290)
Will there be a safety? YES (+450)
Panthers -17.5 (+475)
Panthers first half points OVER 13 (-110)
Panthers -14.5 (+340)
Coin toss — HEADS (-105)
Will there be a missed extra point? YES (+425)
Panthers -10.5 (+195)
Coin toss — TAILS (-105)
ST or defensive touchdown? YES (+130)
Will the opening kickoff be a touchback? YES (-170)
Will the opening kickoff be a touchback? NO (+150)
Will the game go to overtime? YES (+600)
Panthers -7.5 (+125)
Both teams with a FG 33 yards or longer? YES (+125)
First offensive play from scrimmage? Passing play (+130)
First score of game — FG/safety (+110)
Will there be a made FG in first quarter? YES (-120)
Team to score first — Broncos (+115)
Total players to attempt pass OVER 2.5 (+175)
Most-best props, money count
Panthers +7.5 (-420)
Will there be a safety? NO (-600)
Panthers +10.5 (-650)
Panthers +3.5 (-280)
Panthers +14.5 (-1000)
Will Cam Newton score a rushing TD? NO (+165)
Will Mike Tolbert score a TD? NO (-300)
Broncos player with two or more TDs? NO (+160)
Will there be a successful 2-point conversion? NO (-350)
Broncos +7.5 (-145)
Total interceptions OVER 1.5 (-125)
Cam Ward saves > Cam Newton completions
Will Ronnie Hillman score a TD? NO (-185)
Mike Tolbert total yards UNDER 23.5 (-110)
Cam Newton rushing yards OVER 44.5 (-110)
Total FGs in game OVER 3.5 (-120)
Total receptions for Greg Olsen UNDER 5.5 (-110)
Panthers -17.5 (+475)
First reception in yards for Greg Olsen OVER 8.5 (+100)
Will Josh Norman have an INT? NO (-340)
Super Bowl MVP bets
Ticket count:
| PLAYER | Opening odds | Current | % of total # of tickets |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAM NEWTON | -120 | -140 | 15% |
| LUKE KUECHLY | 25/1 | 15/1 | 14% |
| VON MILLER | 40/1 | 20/1 | 11% |
| PEYTON MANNING | 11/2 | 7/2 | 8% |
| JOSH NORMAN | 50/1 | 25/1 | 4% |
| JONATHAN STEWART | 15/1 | 18/1 | 4% |
| DEMARCUS WARE | 75/1 | 60/1 | 4% |
| TED GINN JR | 18/1 | 20/1 | 4% |
| CJ ANDERSON | 20/1 | 20/1 | 4% |
| EMMANUEL SANDERS | 20/1 | 20/1 | 4% |
Money count:
| PLAYER NAME | Opening odds | Current | % of total $ wagered |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAM NEWTON | -120 | -140 | 48% |
| VON MILLER | 40/1 | 20/1 | 9% |
| LUKE KUECHLY | 25/1 | 15/1 | 8% |
| PEYTON MANNING | 11/2 | 7/2 | 6% |
| JOSH NORMAN | 50/1 | 25/1 | 5% |
| CJ ANDERSON | 20/1 | 20/1 | 2% |
| DEMARCUS WARE | 75/1 | 60/1 | 2% |
| EMMANUEL SANDERS | 20/1 | 20/1 | 2% |
| JONATHAN STEWART | 15/1 | 18/1 | 2% |
| FIELD | 10-1 | 20/1 | 1% |
To score first TD
| PLAYER | Current odds | % of total $ wagered |
|---|---|---|
| GREG OLSEN | 8/1 | 33% |
| MIKE TOLBERT | 22/1 | 15% |
| OWEN DANIELS | 12/1 | 12% |
| CAM NEWTON | 6/1 | 6% |
| DEVIN FUNCHESS | 28/1 | 6% |
| COREY BROWN | 22/1 | 5% |
| EMMANUEL SANDERS | 10/1 | 5% |
| JERRICHO COTCHERY | 30/1 | 4% |
| TED GINN JR | 10/1 | 3% |
| DEMARYIUS THOMAS | 7/1 | 2% |
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