NHL Draft lottery Phase 2, explained: Every team's odds to pick Alexis Lafreniere after qualifying elimination

Jackie Spiegel

NHL Draft lottery Phase 2, explained: Every team's odds to pick Alexis Lafreniere after qualifying elimination image

CHAOS!

It really did happen. 

The NHL held Phase 1 of the 2020 NHL Draft on June 26 when the most bizarre scenario imaginable unfolded, upending this year's draft process.

The worst team in the NHL — by far, the lowly Red Wings — would not get to pick No. 1 overall. How about the second-worst team, the Senators, who had not one but two chances to win the Alexis Lafreniere sweepstakes? That would be a no. The Kings, luckier than most, jumped to No 2 overall, but still fell short of the top pick.

Instead, the ping pong ball turned up in favor of a yet-to-be-determined team playing in the qualifying round — not even one of the bottom-seven squads from the 2019-20 NHL shortened regular season — that will get the chance to draft Lafreniere, a Canadian wunderkind considered by most to be the NHL's next generational talent.

Yes, 2020 is weird.

Sporting News has everything you need to know to make sense of the 2020 NHL Draft's Phase 2 lottery, including updated odds and the current order of picks as teams are eliminated from postseason contention.

When is the NHL Draft Lottery Phase 2 draw?

The qualifying round is scheduled to end on Aug. 9 with the first round of the Stanley Cup playoffs beginning Aug. 11. Phase 2 will happen the day after the 16 teams are officially confirmed with eight teams itching to find out if they get the No. 1 overall pick.

  • Date: Monday, Aug. 10
  • Time: 6 p.m. ET | 3 p.m. PT
  • TV channel: NBCSN, NHL Network (U.S.) | Sportsnet, TVA Sports (Canada)

How does Phase 2 work?

Let's be honest for a second: the entire draft lottery this time around is confusing even for the most grizzled draft guru. With that, we'll try to explain it as best we can.

First, there was a lottery back in June where the seven teams not participating in the postseason found out where they slotted for the draft. But as we said earlier, none of those teams were selected to pick first overall. That honor went to something called "Team E" — a placeholder for one of the eight teams eliminated from the NHL's qualifying round.

So, that activated Phase 2.

On Monday, the NHL will hold a single draw in which every team has equal 12.5 percent odds to win the No. 1 overall pick and (what is expected to be) Lafreniere. The other seven teams will be assigned positions 9-15, in inverse order of their points percentages at the time the regular season was paused.

NHL Draft lottery odds

The eight teams will not compete in the Stanley Cup playoffs will get an even 12.5 percent chance to get the top pick in the draft that is scheduled for Oct. 10.

TEAMODDSPTS. PCT.
Minnesota Wild12.5 pct..558
Winnipeg Jets12.5.563
New York Rangers12.5.564
Florida Panthers12.5.565
Nashville Predators12.5.565
Toronto Maple Leafs12.5.579
Edmonton Oilers12.5.585
Pittsburgh Penguins12.5.623

NHL Draft order 2020

Here is the complete 2020 NHL Draft order before the Phase 2 lottery drawing. After the first 15 picks are established, the remaining 16 slots (No. 16-31) will be determined by the results of the 2020 Stanley Cup playoffs with the champion tentatively scheduled to pick 31st.

TEAM
1. TBD*
2. Los Angeles Kings
3. Ottawa Senators (via SJS)
4. Detroit Red Wings
5. Ottawa Senators
6. Anaheim Ducks
7. New Jersey Devils
8. Buffalo Sabres
9. TBD*
10. TBD*
11. TBD*
12. TBD*
13. TBD*
14. TBD*
15. TBD*

* To be determined by Phase 2 of 2020 NHL Draft Lottery

Alexis Lafreniere, other top prospects to know

The consensus No. 1 pick is Rimouski Oceanic forward Alexis Lafreniere. In April, the NHL's Central Scouting Bureau named him the top North American skater in its final rankings.

This past season, he led the QMJHL with 112 points (35 goals, 77 assists) and at the 2020 IIHF World Junior Championship he was named the tournament's Most Valuable Player and Best Forward after posting 10 points (four goals, six assists) in five games for the gold-medal winning Canadians.

But he's not the only player that has left general managers salivating to finally get the selection process going; the 2020 draft is a deep one with kids expected to make immediate impacts for their new franchises.

Here's the top players to keep an eye on per the final Central Scouting Bureau standings:

North American skaters

PlayerPos.NationalityTeam
1Alexis LafreniereLWCANRimouski
2Quinton ByfieldCCANSudbury
3Jamie DrysdaleDCANErie
4Jake SandersonDUSAU.S. U18
5Cole PerfettiCCANSaginaw
6Marco RossiCAUTOttawa
7Jack QuinnRWCANOttawa
8Kaiden GuhleDCANPrince Albert
9Braden SchneiderDCANBrandon
10Dawson MercerCCANChicoutimi

International skaters

RankingPlayerPos.NationalityTeam
1Tim StuetzleLWGERMannheim
2Alexander HoltzRWSWEDjurgarden
3Anton LundellCFINHIFK
4Lucas RaymondLWSWEFrolunda
5Rodion AmirovLWRUSUfa
6Helge GransDSWEMalmo Jr.
7John-Jason PeterkaRWGERMunchen
8Topi NiemelaDFINKarpat
9Noel GunlerRWSWELulea
10Roni HirvonenCFINAssat

North American goaltenders

RankingPlayerNationalityTeam
1Nicolas DawsCANGuelph
2Drew CommessoUSAU.S. U18
3Samuel HlavajSVKSherbrooke
4Will CranleyCANOttawa
5Garin BjorklundCANMedicine Hat
6Dylan GarandCANKamloops
7Fabio IacoboCANVictoriaville
8Devon LeviCANCarleton Place
9Brock GouldUSAMoose Jaw
10Nick MalikCZESault Ste. Marie

International goaltenders

RankingPlayerNationalityTeam
1Iaroslav AskarovRUSNeva. Saint Petersburg
2Jan BednarCZESokolov
3Joel BlomqvistFINKarpat Jr.
4Calle ClangSWERogle Jr.
5Amir MiftakhovRUSBars Kazan
6Juho MarkkanenFINSaipa Jr.
7Hugo OllasSWELinkoping Jr.
8Jesper VikmanSWEAIK Jr.
9Davide FadaniITALugano Jr.
10Jakub MalekCZEVsetin Jr.

Jackie Spiegel