Last year’s NFL Draft was loaded with quarterback talent, yet the one who received the least amount of hype may have been Oregon’s Bo Nix.
Nix was the fifth quarterback selected in the first round, going 12th overall to the Denver Broncos after Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Michael Penix Jr., and J.J. McCarthy. Yet Broncos head coach Sean Payton believes he may have landed the best of the bunch.
“I honestly think he’s gonna be one of the top quarterbacks within the next two years,” Payton told SI’s Albert Breer. “I think he’s going to be a superstar.”
That’s certainly a bold prediction, but it’s one Payton has been preparing to make for a long time. According to ESPN senior writer Seth Wickersham, the veteran coach began studying Nix well before the 2024 NFL Draft.
"I sat down with Sean Payton — and this was in March of 2024. Everyone knew the Broncos were in the market for a quarterback, and he looks me in the eye and says, 'Do you promise with every shred of your integrity that you won't share this with anyone?' And I said, 'Sure.'
"He opened a folder, and there was all this data inside — and Bo Nix was at the top of the list."
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Wickersham revealed that Payton had developed his own formula to measure quarterback processing speed, the same method he first used to evaluate Patrick Mahomes back in 2017.
"When he ran the 2024 quarterbacks through the formula, Bo Nix was by far the most efficient — and it wasn't even close," Wickersham said. "Caleb Williams, by the way, was one of the last ones of the guys that ended up going in the first round."
The early returns have validated Payton’s belief. Nix ended his rookie season 10-7 as a starter, throwing for 3,775 yards, 29 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions while completing 66.3% of his passes. Those numbers surpassed Offensive Rookie of the Year Jayden Daniels in both passing yards and touchdowns. The only notable stat Bears quarterback Caleb Williams bested Nix in was interceptions, with just six.
“You know why you don’t hear a lot about Bo Nix?” ESPN’s Louis Riddick asked on The Rich Eisen Show. “Because not a whole lot of people liked Bo Nix last year. Everybody thought Sean Payton was out of his mind saying the things he was saying about Bo Nix and how good he could be.
“Now who is having the last laugh?”
Riddick believes that Nix, paired with Payton’s unwavering confidence and a roster full of emerging talent, has made the Broncos “for real” — a genuine threat to Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC West.
If Nix continues on this trajectory, Denver may have finally found the franchise quarterback it has been searching for since Peyton Manning’s retirement — and Sean Payton’s once‑bold prediction might end up looking like pure foresight.