In Monday’s breakdown of college football wildcards, CBS’s Carter Bahns has USC at +570 odds to reach the playoffs in the Trojans’ second season in the Big Ten.
Last year, USC finished solidly in the center of the conference at No. 9, going 7-6 (4-5). The Trojans fell to Big Ten opponents Michigan (27-24), Minnesota (24-17), Penn State (33-30 OT), Maryland (29-28) and Washington (26-21), but had a notable 27-20 win over LSU September 1.
The question for the Trojans this season will be if they can reverse their one-score game results. If they go 5-1 in those games as opposed to 1-5 last year, USC could be in real playoff contention.
A lot will come down to the performance of rising junior quarterback Jayden Maiava, who replaced starter Miller Moss mid-season last fall. Maiava threw for 59.8% completion in 2024, recording 1,201 yards and 11 touchdowns. A reliable quarterback is a must for any team, but USC’s initial decision between Maiava and Moss could impact their entire season.
As Bahns said: “It is obviously not that simple, but the slim margins show just how much variance exists in this team's potential for Year 2 in the Big Ten.”
The Trojans’ 2025 schedule is doable. They’ll face a tough game at home against Michigan, and difficulties on the road against Notre Dame and Oregon, but will avoid games with Ohio State and Penn State. Bahns thinks avoiding those two conference opponents could be the jumpstart USC’s program desperately needs.
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The game against the Fighting Irish is the last matchup on the contract between the rival schools.
“There are some changes that we've all just gotta accept, because it's just part of it right now,” USC head coach Lincoln Riley said last month on Always College Football.
USC is uncertain about the series' impact on its playoff hopes, considering the demands that come with playing a Big Ten schedule, Sports Illustrated reported.
“If you love college football, then are you going to scroll on your TV past USC-Ohio State? No, you're not,” Riley said. “All of these things have to start somewhere. Is there some changes that I understand people are having a hard time coming to grips with? Sure. I get it. But the alternative is pretty darn good. It's creating some incredible matchups.”
If this season is another letdown, questions about Riley’s effectiveness may arise.
In 2022, Riley’s seven wins tied the USC and Pac-12 records for most victories by a first-year head coach (John Robinson, 1976). Before USC, he took Oklahoma to four straight conference championships and playoff appearances, going 10-2 in his final season. Riley has led the Trojan football program for two years, but if he can’t turn it around this year, he may not last long in Los Angeles.