So how did we get here?
In part, this is the cost of transition. Houston’s jump from the American Athletic Conference to the Big 12 wasn’t expected to pay off overnight. Being ranked 68 which is last among power 4 teams according to the Athletic. Like Cincinnati, the Cougars have experienced growing pains on the field, in recruiting, and at the bank. Their average football revenue is just $22.7 million, and unlike more established Power 4 schools, they haven’t had decades of conference payouts or national TV exposure to build their foundation and brand.
The valuation, in many ways, reflects that recent history. It also reflects the risk associated with being new to this big stage and as a program still proving it belongs.
But being last in value doesn’t necessarily mean being last in potential.
Houston’s presence in one of the largest and most football-crazy cities in America gives the school a natural advantage in the long game in terms of how they will generate buzz and butts in seats. The city is overflowing with talent, corporate dollars, and media exposure. And in the new world of NIL and realignment, those things matter more than ever.
The Big 12 move itself was a signal that Houston is betting on itself with growth, and not becoming stagnant. It may take time to pay off, but it’s a bet worth watching.
There are still hurdles. Houston isn’t a legacy brand like Texas or Oklahoma. The fanbase isn’t as national. And they’ve yet to establish themselves as a major force in their new conference. But that’s why this valuation feels like more of a starting point than a ceiling.
The Cougars might be last on the list for now but if they can win, recruit locally, and continue to build infrastructure in a major market, they could climb quickly up the ranks and by the time programs are really running like a business who knows where they could be.
After all, program value isn’t just about the location it’s about how far you can go.