College football predictions for 2023 bowl games, Playoff semifinals, national championship

Bill Bender

College football predictions for 2023 bowl games, Playoff semifinals, national championship image

Sporting News' annual preseason bowl projections are here, and our College Football Playoff picks for 2023-24 feature three of the same teams from last season. 

Seriously, we can't wait for the 12-team College Football Playoff and the variety that is sure to come with it. As it stands, however, we picked some of the usual suspects for the final installment of the four-team playoff. 

Georgia, of course, is one of those choices. The Bulldogs have won back-to-back national championships and will be a preseason No.1  across most publications. Alabama was the last team to attempt a three-peat in 2013. The Crimson Tide's bid fell short because of the “Kick Six.” Alabama is not in our CFP projections. 

BENDER: How 2024 schedules will affect SEC, Big Ten playoff bids

Michigan and Ohio State are for the second straight season – meaning we are forecasting another matchup of unbeaten teams at The Game. Last year, SN did pick Georgia and Ohio State as one of our semifinals. Why not go back to the well?

Our final Playoff pick is USC – led by second-year coach Lincoln Riley and Caleb Williams. The Trojans were close last season. This year, they win the Pac-12 and break the conference's playoff drought that extends back to 2016. 

The College Football Playoff semifinals will be on Jan. 1, 2024 Those semifinals will be played at the Rose Bowl Game in Pasadena, Calif., and the Allstate Sugar Bowl in New Orleans. Those locations were the sites of the first four-team playoff in 2014. 

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The College Football Playoff championship game is on Jan. 9 at NRG Stadium in Houston. 

SN has projections for every bowl game here, and they will be updated throughout the season:

College football bowl predictions 2023

DATEBOWLPROJECTED MATCHUP
Dec. 16HomeTown Lenders Bahamas BowlNorthern Illinois vs. New Mexico State
Dec. 16R&L Carriers New Orleans BowlWestern Kentucky vs. Troy
Dec. 16Cure BowlMTSU vs. Appalachian State
Dec. 16New Mexico BowlLouisiana Tech vs. Air Force
Dec. 16LA BowlArizona State vs. Boise State
Dec. 16Radiance Technologies Independence BowlOklahoma State vs. Washington State
Dec. 18Myrtle Beach BowlFAU vs. Coastal Carolina
Dec. 19Frisco BowlArmy vs. Memphis
Dec. 21RoofClaim.com Boca Raton BowlLiberty vs. Southern Miss
Dec. 22Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla BowlAuburn vs. Georgia Tech
Dec. 23Birmingham BowlMississippi State vs. Wake Forest
Dec. 23Camellia BowlOhio vs. Marshall
Dec. 23Lockheed Martin Armed Forces BowlBYU vs. Navy
Dec. 23Famous Idaho Potato BowlBuffalo vs. Fresno State
Dec. 2368 Ventures BowlToledo vs. South Alabama
Dec. 23Distribution Las Vegas BowlMichigan State vs. UCLA
Dec. 23Easypost Hawai'i BowlNorth Texas vs. San Jose State
Dec. 26Quick Lane BowlMaryland vs. Miami, Ohio
Dec. 26Servpro First Responder BowlBaylor vs. SMU
Dec. 26Guaranteed Rate BowlWyoming vs. Kansas
Dec. 27Military BowlSyracuse vs. East Carolina
Dec. 27Duke's Mayo BowlNebraska vs. NC State
Dec. 27TaxAct Texas BowlOklahoma vs. Florida
Dec. 28Fenway BowlMiami vs. Tulane
Dec. 28Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe BowlIllinois vs. Pitt
Dec. 28Pop-Tarts BowlTexas Tech vs. North Carolina
Dec. 28Valero Alamo BowlKansas State vs. Utah
Dec. 29TaxSlayer Gator BowlKentucky vs. Duke
Dec. 29Tony The Tiger Sun BowlOregon vs. Louisville
Dec. 29AutoZone Liberty BowlOle Miss vs. TCU
Dec. 30Transperfect Music City BowlTexas A&M vs. Minnesota
Dec. 30Barstool Arizona BowlEastern Michigan vs. San Diego State
Jan. 1Reliaquest BowlSouth Carolina vs. Iowa
Jan. 1Cheez-It Citrus BowlTennessee vs. Wisconsin
TBDSDCCU Holiday BowlOregon State vs. Notre Dame

New Year's Day Six predictions 

DATEBOWLPROJECTED MATCHUP
Dec. 29Goodyear Cotton Bowl ClassicLSU vs. Texas
Dec. 30Chick-fil-A Peach BowlAlabama vs. Clemson
Dec. 30Capital One Orange BowlPenn State vs. Florida State
Jan. 1Vrbo Fiesta BowlUTSA vs. Washington 

Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic: LSU vs. Texas 

Texas – which hasn't won a Big 12 championship since 2009 – will take the conference title in its farewell tour. A high-powered offense led by Quinn Ewers will be the difference, but it won't be enough to get in the CFP. Brian Kelly's second season at LSU comes with even greater expectations. He delivers another 10-win season, and this serves as a teaser for the Longhorns' arrival in the SEC in 2024. 

Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl: Alabama vs. Clemson 

The Crimson Tide and Tigers have met four times in the CFP — including a semifinal and three CFP championship games. This time, the programs meet in the New Year's Day Six, and this matchup outside the playoff ramps up speculation about the future of Nick Saban and Dabo Swinney and whether the Clemson coach will be Saban's successor down the line. How soon is that? On the field, they have split those last four meetings. 

Capital One Orange Bowl: Penn State vs. Florida State

The Nittany Lions and Seminoles both are popular CFP picks in 2023. The Seminoles are coming off a 10-win season, and Jordan Travis leads an offense that averaged 36.1 points per game. The Nittany Lions are looking to break through in the Big Ten with an offense led by Drew Allar and Nick Singleton and a defense ready to challenge Ohio State and Michigan. James Franklin is 3-1 in New Year's Day Six games. 

MORE: Five sleepers who could earn their first CFP bid

Vrbo Fiesta Bowl: Washington vs. UTSA 

The Huskies will be one of the main challengers for USC in the Pac-12 – and Michael Penix Jr. is a value pick for the Heisman Trophy. The Nov. 4 showdown with the Trojans will be huge. It's still a step in the right direction for second-year coach Kalen DeBoer. The Roadrunners are making the move to the American Athletic Conference. Quarterback Frank Harris – in his seventh season – leads the Roadrunners to a New Year's Day Six bowl.  

College Football Playoff predictions 

 

DATEBOWLPROJECTED MATCHUP
Jan. 1Rose Bowl Game (Semifinal)Michigan vs. USC
Jan. 1Allstate Sugar Bowl (Semifinal)Georgia vs. Ohio State

Rose Bowl Game: No. 2 Michigan vs. No. 3 USC 

The Wolverines and Trojans play their 10th head-to-head Rose Bowl matchup before the Trojans head to the Big Ten. Will Caleb Williams be a two-time Heisman Trophy winner at this point? Will J.J. McCarthy be considered a first-round pick? Michigan returns to the playoff for the third straight season, which puts the pressure on Jim Harbaugh to win now more than ever. USC reaches the playoff for the first time under Lincoln Riley. Harbaugh and Riley are a combined 0-5 in CFP semifinals. 

Sugar Bowl: No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 4 Ohio State 

It's a rematch of last year's 42-41 thriller between the Bulldogs and Buckeyes at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl, and a tenuous one knowing the committee might opt to pass on Ohio State if they lose to the Wolverines for a third straight season. Rematches haven't stopped the committee before, however, and these should be the two most-talented teams in 2023. Of course, Alabama will be in the conversation until the end. 

College Football Playoff championship pick 

DATEBOWLPROJECTED MATCHUP
Jan. 9CFP championship gameMichigan vs. Georgia

CFP championship game (Houston): Georgia vs. Michigan 

The four-team CFP era ends with a SEC vs. Big Ten matchup – perhaps a harbinger of things to come for the 12-team era. From the BCS era through the four-team era, the Big Ten is 0-3 against the SEC in championship games.  This is Michigan’s first chance at it, however, and we’ll see how much improvement the Wolverines have made since the 34-11 loss to the Bulldogs in the CFP semifinal at the Orange Bowl two years ago. Georgia, meanwhile, will go for the three-peat under Kirby Smart. Is anything going to stop the Bulldogs along the way? 

Bill Bender

Bill Bender graduated from Ohio University in 2002 and started at The Sporting News as a fantasy football writer in 2007. He has covered the College Football Playoff, NBA Finals and World Series for SN. Bender enjoys story-telling, awesomely-bad 80s movies and coaching youth sports.