The New York Yankees (51-41) will look to keep their hot bats alive against the Seattle Mariners (48-44) Thursday night en route to a possible three-game sweep. The pitching matchup presents a fascinating contrast: Seattle sends their ace, Bryan Woo (8-4, 2.77 ERA), to the mound to act as a stopper, while New York counters with Marcus Stroman (1-1, 7.45 ERA), who has been searching for stability since returning from injury.
While the Yankees have controlled the season series, Woo represents the Mariners' best chance to turn the tide. He has been a model of consistency, boasting a stellar K:BB ratio and giving his team a chance to win nearly every time he takes the hill. For the Yankees, the story is different. Stroman has been hit hard, posting an ERA north of 7.00 and struggling to pitch deep into games in his first starts back.
New York Yankees vs Seattle Mariners Odds
| Bet Type | Seattle Mariners Odds | New York Yankees Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | -1.5 (+145) | +1.5 (-175) |
| Moneyline | -118 | -102 |
| Total Runs | Over 9 (-115) | Under 9 (-105) |
Odds as of July 10, 2025 from BetMGM.
The odds paint a picture of a tightly contested game, with the Seattle Mariners installed as slight road favorites primarily due to the significant edge in the starting pitching matchup. The moneyline suggests a near pick'em scenario, but the market's lean towards Seattle underscores the confidence in Bryan Woo compared to the struggling Marcus Stroman.
The run line offers plus-money value on the Mariners to win by two or more runs, an attractive proposition for bettors who believe Woo can shut down the Yankees' offense. The total is set at a relatively high 9 runs, a nod to the Yankees' explosive lineup, Stroman's recent struggles, and warm, humid conditions at Yankee Stadium that could help the ball carry.
New York Yankees vs Seattle Mariners Odds Movement & Analysis
The betting market has shown significant movement in favor of the Seattle Mariners. The New York Yankees opened as slight +100 home underdogs, but the line has shifted to -102, while the Mariners moved from -120 to -118. This reverse line movement, where the price gets better on the Yankees despite them taking a majority of public moneyline bets (53.4%), strongly suggests that sharp, respected bettors are backing Seattle.
The primary driver for this shift is the pitching matchup. Bryan Woo (2.77 ERA) has been one of the American League's most effective starters, while Marcus Stroman's 7.45 ERA is a major liability. The market is pricing in Woo's ability to neutralize the Yankees' powerful offense. The total has held firm at 9 runs, but the juice on the Over has increased from -110 to -115, and public betting splits show a heavy lean on the Over (57.7% of bets, 65.2% of handle). This indicates that while the line hasn't moved, the money is pouring in on a high-scoring affair, likely anticipating the Yankees will score runs but also that Stroman will get shelled.
For bettors, the current Mariners moneyline at -118 still holds value, as the line could continue to move in their favor as game time approaches. The value on the Yankees +1.5 run line at -175 is a solid option for those who believe New York can keep it close even in a loss.
New York Yankees vs Seattle Mariners – Starting Pitcher Matchups & Batter History
Seattle Mariners Career Statistics vs. Marcus Stroman
| BATTER | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Raley | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .500 | .571 | 1.000 | 1.571 |
| Julio Rodríguez | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .250 | .250 | .250 | .500 |
| Dominic Canzone | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .333 | .333 | 1.333 | 1.667 |
| Cal Raleigh | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | .000 | .125 | .000 | .125 |
| Dylan Moore | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | .000 | .250 | .000 | .250 |
Stroman has had mixed results against the current Mariners roster in a small sample size. Luke Raley and Dominic Canzone have both taken him deep, showcasing power potential. However, he has effectively neutralized Cal Raleigh and Dylan Moore.
New York Yankees Career Statistics vs. Bryan Woo
Last 5 year(s) | Games analyzed: 4 | Total at-bats: 48
| BATTER | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge | 8 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | .375 | .375 | .500 | .875 |
| Cody Bellinger | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .333 | .333 | .667 | 1.000 |
| Austin Wells | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | .250 | .250 | .375 | .625 |
| Jasson Domínguez | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .200 | .200 | .800 | 1.000 |
| Anthony Volpe | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | .000 | .143 | .000 | .143 |
Bryan Woo has largely dominated the Yankees hitters he has faced, holding them to a paltry .174 batting average over 46 at-bats. While Aaron Judge has managed three hits and Jasson Domínguez has a home run, the rest of the lineup has struggled mightily, especially Anthony Volpe. The high strikeout total (13) indicates Woo's stuff plays well against this lineup.
NYY vs SEA Yankees vs. Mariners Batter Props
| PLAYER | HITS | TOTAL BASES | HOME RUNS | RBIs | RUNS SCORED |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge (NYY) | 0.5 (O -258 | U +184) | 1.5 (O -114 | U -120) | Yes (+190) | 0.5 (O +128 | U -178) | 0.5 (O -141 | U +102) |
| Julio Rodriguez (SEA) | 1.5 (O +170 | U -234) | 1.5 (O -102 | U -137) | Yes (+465) | 0.5 (O +167 | U -234) | 0.5 (O -118 | U -115) |
| Cody Bellinger (NYY) | 0.5 (O -221 | U +160) | 1.5 (O +120 | U -163) | Yes (+383) | 0.5 (O +167 | U -234) | 0.5 (O +121 | U -168) |
| Cal Raleigh (SEA) | 0.5 (O -248 | U +177) | 1.5 (O -118 | U -117) | Yes (+182) | 0.5 (O +101 | U -139) | 0.5 (O -143 | U +104) |
| Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) | 0.5 (O -219 | U +159) | 1.5 (O +137 | U -189) | Yes (+503) | 0.5 (O +209 | U -297) | 0.5 (O +146 | U -204) |
MLB batter props as of July 10, 2025 from MGM.
NYY vs SEA Yankees vs. Mariners Pitcher Props
| PITCHER | STRIKEOUTS | EARNED RUNS | WALKS ALLOWED | HITS ALLOWED | INNINGS PITCHED |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan Woo (SEA) | 5.5 (O -139 | U +110) | 2.5 (O -139 | U +100) | N/A | 5.5 (O +100 | U -143) | 17.5 Outs (O -175 | U +120) |
| Marcus Stroman (NYY) | 3.5 (O -118 | U -110) | 2.5 (O -133 | U -105) | N/A | 5.5 (O +120 | U -175) | 14.5 Outs (O -189 | U +135) |
MLB pitcher props as of July 10, 2025 from BetMGM.
For pitcher props, the lines tell the story of this matchup. Marcus Stroman's earned runs prop is set at 2.5, with heavy juice on the over (-133). Given his 7.45 ERA and the fact that Mariners hitters like Luke Raley and Dominic Canzone have homered off him, the Over 2.5 Earned Runs is a compelling play. His strikeout line is a meager 3.5, reflecting his inability to miss bats recently.
On the other side, Bryan Woo's strikeout prop of 5.5 (-139 Over) is tempting. While the Yankees lineup is dangerous, Woo has fanned 13 of them in just 46 career at-bats. His outs recorded line of 17.5 (equivalent to 5.2 innings) has a heavily juiced Over at -175, as the market expects him to pitch deep into the game.
For batters, Aaron Judge Over 1.5 Total Bases (-114) stands out. He is one of the few Yankees to have success against Woo (.875 OPS) and is swinging a hot bat. For the Mariners, Luke Raley Over 0.5 Total Bases (-175) is a strong parlay piece, as he is 3-for-6 with a homer in his career against Stroman.
New York Yankees vs Seattle Mariners Picks & Prediction
The central theme of this matchup is the massive disparity on the mound. Bryan Woo has been an anchor for the Seattle Mariners, posting ace-like numbers and giving his team a chance to win every fifth day.
In contrast, Marcus Stroman has been a liability for the New York Yankees, struggling with command and getting hit hard in nearly every start since his return. While the Yankees boast one of the league's most formidable offenses, Woo has proven he can handle this lineup, holding them to a .174 collective average in previous meetings.
Several betting trends support a play on the visitors and a high-scoring game. The Mariners have been excellent when Woo starts, going 5-0 in his last five outings. They are also 5-1 in their last six games as a road favorite.
n the other side, the total has gone OVER in 10 consecutive Yankees games, a testament to their offensive firepower and pitching struggles. Furthermore, the OVER is 8-2 in the Mariners' last 10 road games and has cashed in the last six times Seattle has played on the road following a loss. With the wind blowing out at the hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium, all signs point to runs.
Given Stroman's abysmal 7.45 ERA and Woo's proven dominance, the value lies with Seattle. The Yankees' lineup is dangerous, but Woo has the arsenal to navigate it. We expect the Mariners to get to Stroman early and for Woo to pitch well enough to secure a victory. The best bet is on the total, as the Yankees should still contribute offensively, but our official pick is on the better pitcher.
Picks:
- Seattle Mariners Moneyline (-118)
- Over 9 Runs (-115)
- Best Prop: Marcus Stroman Over 2.5 Earned Runs (-133)