The Thunder bounced back from a blown fourth quarter lead in Game 1 with a blowout victory in Game 2. Now, the series heads to Indianapolis with the Pacers looking to win at home to take control of the series. We will be diving into the best NBA Finals prop bets for Thunder vs. Pacers on Wednesday, June 11th.
Siakam to Score 20+ Points (-105) on DraftKings
This is a number that Pascal Siakam has gone under in both games so far this series, which makes it a great positive regression spot for Game 3. It is admittedly a little scary taking an over for anybody on the Pacers due to how balanced they are from a scoring perspective, but this play on Siakam is betting on increased volume from Game 2, along with a bounce back for him in terms of his shooting splits.
He has not really shot well in either game so far this series, going 7-for-15 in Game 1 and 3-for-11 in Game 2. He was able to get to the line a decent amount with nine free throw attempts in Game 2, and that is something that could continue tonight and throughout this series.
Overall, from a matchup perspective, there is a lot to like for Siakam and his scoring against the Thunder, even when considering how good the Thunder defense is.
In the regular season, the Thunder gave up the third-most points per game via spot ups, the 10th-most via post ups, and the sixth-most via free throws. Those numbers have stayed relatively the same in the playoffs, and that also just so happens to be play types two through four of where Siakam's points come from.
There is also some mystery surrounding Tyrese Haliburton and if he is nursing an injury or not, so it is possible we see a higher usage rate for Siakam if Haliburton actually is banged up. To be clear, this would be a play on Siakam regardless of the status of Haliburton, but that could be an added bonus.
Two More NBA Finals Prop Bets for Wednesday Night
We recommend using DraftKings, FanDuel and other sportsbook apps to shop for NBA Finals props and odds. These are two more picks we like for Game 3:
- Obi Toppin Over 1.5 Made Threes (+114) DraftKings
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 10+ 1st Quarter Points (-102) FanDuel
Siakam to score 20+ points is definitely our favorite NBA betting play on the board, but for those looking additional plays here are two honorable mentions that have some value.
As far as Obi Toppin goes, taking two players on the same team to go over their points prop is dangerous, but Toppins three-point prop is a good look for tonight.
The logic is similar to Siakam in that we are betting on positive regression shooting splits for Toppin as well, this time from deep. Toppin shot well in Game 1, but shot 1-for-5 from three-point range in Game 2. The Thunder style of defense will leave shooters like Toppin wide open as part of their defensive strategy, so the volume should be there. For context, the Thunder allowed the third-most catch-and-shoot three-point attempts in the regular season, and also the third-most in the playoffs as well.
Toppin took eight attempts from beyond the arc in Game 1, and that volume is key. Toppin should be looking at another 5-8 attempts tonight. Looking at both the regular season and the playoffs, Toppin attempted between 5-8 three-point attempts in 19 games, and he hit at least two three-pointers in 14 of those games for a hit rate of 73.7%.
To round things out and to add a play on the Thunder side, taking SGA and his first quarter point prop is the way to go. SGA consistently plays all 12 minutes in the first quarter, which is a good place to start.
He hit the 10+ points in Game 1 on 12 shots, but the volume was not quite there in Game 2. He only took five field-goal attempts in the first quarter, making two of them.
The Pacers style of defense is to stick to shooters, which means they generally are the type of defense to give up points to the leading ball-handler on the opposing team. So, on paper, this should be a good matchup for Gilgeous-Alexander from a scoring perspective.
That is why he has scored 43, 33, 38 and 34 points against the Pacers in four games against them (regular season + playoffs). For tonight, we are expecting him to start fast, meaning you can take advantage of NBA Finals prop bets for the first quarter.