The winding road finally has us to the NBA Finals, where the Oklahoma City Thunder host the Indiana Pacers in Game 1 Thursday night. We’ve taken the time to scour the betting lines, and are sharing our favorite NBA Finals picks.
Prop #1: Haliburton Over 2.5 turnovers (+110 at Bet365)
There’s no doubt that OKC will be by far the best defense that Indiana will have seen through these playoffs.
The Thunder provide relentless pressure, and they consistently turn teams over, as evidenced by their 18 turnovers forced per game, the top mark in these playoffs. No other team has even touched the 16 turnover plateau.
Tyrese Haliburton famously had that historic 32-15-12 line with no turnovers in Game 4 vs New York, but he’s had six games of at least three turnovers, missing the Over on this 2.5 line two other times.
He, like the rest of the Pacers, are going to have to take some time to adjust to the speed at which this defense attacks.
Prop #2: Siakam Under 19.5 points (-125 at Bet365)
He’s the MVP of the Eastern Conference Finals, but is Pascal Siakam ready to deliver consistently for the Pacers in the NBA Finals?
Siakam ended the Knicks with a 31-point final dagger in Game 6, the third 30+ point game of the series. But sandwiched in between each of those, he also had three sub-20 scoring games.
In fact, Siakam has only touched the 20-point plateau five times in the last 13 games, and the only Game 1 where he topped this 19.5 scoring line in the postseason was in Indiana’s playoff opener, at home against the Bucks. He’s scored 17 on the road in Game 1s vs the Cavaliers and the Knicks.
In four career games vs the Thunder since joining the Pacers, he has topped this total twice, including 22 points in a game this season on Boxing Day. Siakam will play a part in this game and series, just not as big as Pacers will want in Game 1.
Prop #3: Holmgren Under 9.5 rebounds (-140 at Bet365)
Let’s wrap with Chet Holmgren, who has distinguished himself as a clear part of OKC’s big three with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams. Holmgren is averaging 15 points on 49% shooting from the field, as well as eight rebounds and two blocks.
He’s been given a healthy 9.5 rebound line for Game 1, and I think the books might have overshot here a little bit - unless the Thunder’s lineup adjusts, leaving Holmgren as the lone big most of the time against the Pacers.
Holmgren showed his effectiveness isn’t in getting inside and going to work, but spreading the floor with his shooting and his shot blocking on the other end. Against the Timberwolves, he's rebounding high was seven, which he hit three times.
He will be plenty involved in Game 1, but not as heavily on the glass as the line suggests.