We’re off to a 1-1 start in the MLB player props market this week after yesterday’s split. Freddie Freeman came through for us with a pair of hits, but Joe Ryan surprisingly fell apart against the Athletics.
We’re back Tuesday with another two MLB betting selections, once again picking on Clayton Kershaw. He’ll toe the rubber tonight for the Dodgers as they take on the Mets in a battle of the National League’s top-two World Series odds contenders.
Kershaw has been struggling badly to generate strikeouts since returning from injury, and life won’t get any easier versus a New York lineup that whiffs at a below league average rate.
MLB Betting Picks on Tuesday
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MLB Player Prop Pick #1: Clayton Kershaw Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-165 at DraftKings)
Our official bet will be under 4.5 strikeouts for Kershaw at -165 odds. Full disclosure, you could also bet under 3.5 strikeouts at +130 odds at FanDuel if you want to swing for the fences.
Kershaw has been held below 4 K’s in each of his three starts so far, recording just 6 strikeouts total over 11 innings. He’s issued just as many walks as strikeouts so far, and the numbers don’t suggest his K rate is set to improve anytime soon.
Let’s look at Kershaw’s velocity this year, or lack thereof. His average fastball is traveling only 89 miles per hour, a full four mph lower than when he entered the league. His slider velocity now hovers around 85.5 miles per hour, which gives enemy hitters plenty of time to adjust to what they see. As a result, his now 72 mph curveball is a whole lot less intimidating.
The result is a serious lack of swings and misses. His swinging strike rate has plummeted to 9.3%, while his called strike clip is down to 14%. Opposing batters are being more patient against Kershaw, waiting him out until they see something they like. Enemy hitters are swinging at just 42% of his pitches, down 10% from his Cy Young days.
As for the Mets lineup, they’d be wise to keep Starling Marte out of action tonight. He’s struck out nine times in 23 career at-bats versus Kershaw, which is five times more than any other New York batter.
MLB Player Prop Pick #2: Mike Trout Over 1.5 Hits, Runs and RBI (-145 at Bet365)
It took a DL stint, but finally the real Mike Trout is back in our lives. Trout was producing at career-low levels before sitting out nearly a month, but now he looks like his old self again.
In four games since returning from injury, Trout is 8-for-14 with a home run, five RBIs and two runs scored. He’s cleared over 1.5 hits, runs and RBI in back-to-back games that he’s started, and is a great bet to do so again tonight at Fenway Park.
Trout and the Angels will face off against Brayan Bello, who’s a candidate for serious regression. Bello’s velocity is down across all four of his primary pitches this season, and he’s yielding hard contact at a 41% rate. The lack of velocity is seriously impacting his strikeout potential, as his swing and miss rate is down to a measly 8%.
Despite the numbers showing a decline, Bello has managed to strand 80% of the runners he’s let on base. That’s a serious increase over his career mark of 73%, and there’s just no way that’s sustainable. Expect Trout and the rest of the Angels to give him problems tonight, and if you’re looking for an additional wager to piggyback on top of Trout, consider under 5.5 K’s for the Red Sox right-hander.