We split our MLB player props card yesterday to run our record to 3-3 for the week. Thursday brings an abbreviated nine-game slate to sweat, with all but one of the contests getting underway prior to 4 pm ET.
Our favorite selection comes from Coors Field in Colorado, as the Dodgers and Rockies wrap-up their three-game set. The two teams have combined to score 25 runs through two matchups, and their game today boasts a slate-high 12 run total. We should temper expectations for both starting pitchers in this contest, giving us another reason to fade the future Hall of Famer of the Dodgers.
Best MLB Prop Picks for Thursday
Below, we list our favorite player props for Thursday night. Sign up on FanDuel, DraftKings and bet365 to gain access to MLB betting bonuses.
- Clayton Kershaw Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-148 at FanDuel)
- Cal Raleigh Over 1.5 Hits, Runs and RBI (-130 at DraftKings)
- Max Kepler Under 0.5 Hits (-110 at Bet365)
Fade Kershaw K’s
The former multi-time Cy Young Award for the Dodgers winner enters play with a 6.6 K/9 mark and a 17.6% strikeout rate. Both of those marks are career-lows, and roughly half the rate of his personal best seasons when he was racking up individual accolades.
Kershaw is producing swings and misses on only 9.9% of his pitches, while enemy lineups are being extremely patient against him at the plate. They’re swinging on only 43.6% of his offerings, waiting him out to get their pitch. Kershaw’s fastball velocity tops out below 90 miles per hour, while his once devastating curveball grades out as a negative pitch.
The argument for Kershaw today is that no NL team strikes out more than Colorado. The Rockies whiff at a 27% clip, but that rate drops a couple percent at home, while they boast a slugging percentage and OPS that is .69 and .82 points better respectively at Coors Field, compared to on the road.
Raleigh Delivers Yet Again
Over the last seven days, Seattle’s Raleigh is slashing .400/.483/.780 with five home runs, nine RBI and 11 runs scored. The 28-year-old leads MLB in homers and RBI, ranking second in OPS. He’s cleared over 1.5 hits, runs and RBI in all but two of his past eight outings, and is a strong bet to do so again this afternoon.
Raleigh will face off against struggling Twins righty Simeon Woods Richardson. The M’s catcher owns a .622 slugging percentage and 1.007 OPS versus right-handed pitchers this season, smacking 10 more home runs and driving in 31 more runs versus them than southpaws.
Woods Richardson, meanwhile, has posted a 5.17 ERA over the last month, yielding 17 runs in his past 18 innings of work. He’s struggled badly versus left-handed bats all season, surrendering a .337/.393/.505 slash line, while his 43.4% hard hit allowed rate is his worst mark since his rookie campaign.
Kepler Kept Quiet
Last but not least, we’re betting under 0.5 hits for Philly’s Kepler. The 32-year-old has gone hitless in three of his past four outings and is on pace for one of the worst statistical seasons of his career.
Kepler simply isn’t driving the ball like he used to, posting the worst line drive rate of his career. He’s striking out on over 20% of his at-bats, and faces an extremely tough matchup versus Astros ace Hunter Brown.
The Cy Young candidate leads MLB in ERA and ranks top five in wins and WHIP. He’s allowing hard contact at just a 29% clip, and a minuscule 6.3%-barrel rate. Over his past four outings, Brown is allowing an average of 2.5 hits, and we shouldn’t expect Kepler to account for any base knocks this afternoon.