We swept our MLB player props card yesterday, posting our first perfect day of the week. That improves our weekly record to 7-10, and while we’re still on pace for our first losing week in nearly two months, we’ve at least minimized the damage.
Sunday brings the week’s final slate to sweat, and with 15 games on deck there is no shortage of MLB betting options to choose from on the player props menu. Our favorite bet to target is under 2.5 strikeouts for Cincinnati’s Wade Miley, who no longer has what it takes to produce even respectable K numbers.
MLB Player Prop Pick #1: Miley Under 2.5 Strikeouts (+120 at Bet365)
Let’s be clear, Miley was never a big-time strikeout producer. Since coming into the league he’s posted a K/9 rate north of 8 only once, and that was all the way back in 2016. Since then, his strikeout rate has steadily declined, and over the past two seasons it’s been less than 3 K’s per nine innings.
Miley went under the knife early last year, and since returning he’s been incapable of eating innings or generating swings and misses. The 38-year-old has lasted a total of only seven innings through two starts, yielding 11 hits and seven runs. He’s recorded more walks (4) than strikeouts (2), and the numbers suggest things won’t be improving anytime soon.
Miley is barely touching 90 miles per hour with his fastball, and just 62% of his pitches are finding the strike zone. He’s forcing a pathetic swing and miss rate of 2.6%, and only 5.9% of the batters he’s faced have struck out.
The AL Central leading Tigers have crushed left-handers like Miley all season long. They’re slashing .274/.341/.448 versus southpaws, scoring 33% more runs against them than right-handers.
MLB Player Prop Pick #2: Acuna Jr. Over 1.5 Total Bases (-125 at Bet365)
If it weren’t for a knee injury that kept him out of the lineup for the first month and a half of the season, we’d be talking about Ronald Acuna Jr. in the NL MVP conversation. The 27-year-old is on an absolute tear this season, hitting .387, with seven home runs, 13 RBI, and a 1.178 OPS through 20 games.
Ronal Acuna Jr. has posted four consecutive multi-hit games and has failed to reach base in only one of 12 June contests. He has feasted on left-handed pitching throughout his career, which is bad news for Rockies starter Austin Gomber.
The 31-year-old is making his first start of the season, and if it’s anything like the rest of his MLB tenure, Acuna Jr. and the Braves are in for a big day. Gomber owns a career 4.86 ERA, while opponents have made hard contact at over a 40% clip in back-to-back seasons.
Given that it’s his first start back, the likelihood of him pitching deep into the game is not high. Either he’ll struggle badly against a potent Atlanta lineup, or he’ll be on some sort of a pitch count. Regardless of the reason, we should expect to see plenty of the Colorado bullpen which is more good news for the Braves.
Over the last month, Rockies relievers own a 5.62 ERA and have issued hard contact at a 40% rate.