It's Dinger Tuesday, and there are a bunch of positive home run venues today when considering the stadium and the weather. Yesterday was good to us, getting one home run prediction to cash thanks to Brandon Lowe.
With today being a Tuesday, not only do we get the Dinger Tuesday promotion, but we also have a full 15-game slate to dive into. Let's get into it for our best MLB home run picks today, June 17th .
Best Home Run Picks for Tuesday
Try using MLB betting bonuses on FanDuel and bet365 to make these home run picks:
- Brent Rooker (+375 on bet365)
- Nick Kurtz (+475 on bet365)
- Juan Soto (+450 on bet365)
- Adley Rutschman (+500 on FanDuel)
Rooker, Kurtz to Go Yard at Suter Field
Similar to the strategy of taking multiple Rays yesterday, today is the perfect day to spray the board with multiple players on the Athletics. Rooker did not come through for us yesterday, but, once again, this game at Suter Field is one of the best home run venues from a stadium and weather perspective.
The temperature today is in the 90s with 10+ mph winds blowing out of the park, and the barometric pressure is low as well. All those factors help with carry for any baseball hit in the air.
Both batters get the benefit of going up against Jason Alexander of the Astros, granted it is an unknown how long Alexander will actually be in the game. If we can get multiple at-bats for both guys, that would be considered a win. Alexander has only pitched six innings this year, but he has among the worst numbers for a pitcher one could imagine.
He has allowed a barrel rate of 20%, HardHit rate of 68%, all with a low strikeout rate of 14.3% and, all in all, a HR/9 of 4.50.
So, the strategy here is targeting the two hottest batters on the Athletics in Rooker (who has 12 HardHits in the last 7 days) and Nick Kurtz (10 HardHits, 3 HRs in the last 7 days.)
Soto Goes Long in Atlanta
A reasonable argument could be made that Juan Soto is the hottest batter in baseball over the last week. He leads the MLB with total number of HardHits in the last seven games with an absurd 14, and that is with a high walk rate. Last game he was walked three times and still managed to get two HardHits on the board, giving himself a HardHit rate of 87.5% and a barrel rate of 18.8% in the last seven days.
His fly-ball rate is 43.8% in this stretch, which is not a horrible number for someone needing to hit a home run, and especially for Soto, who has struggled with his launch angle this season.
He is going up against Spencer Schwellenbach, who is a good pitcher but can be had by left-handed hitters. He has allowed a HR/9 of 1.75 against lefties, and in his last five starts has allowed a HR every 19 at-bats to LHH.
Soto always runs the risk of getting walked, but when he's making contact he's hitting the ball hard, and he has a great matchup tonight.
Rutschman Goes Back-to-Back with Another Homer
Those immediately scared off of taking Adley Rutschman to hit a home run for the second straight night should, hopefully, be comforted by the fact that he just went back-to-back earlier this month. As for tonight, Rutschman gets the benefit of playing at the Rays stadium, and he has one of the best pitching matchups with Zack Littell on the mound.
To comment on the weather first, this was detailed yesterday, but the Rays stadium has among the shortest right field porches in the MLB, and for tonight specifically there are strong winds blowing out to right field. So, a left-handed pull hitter (such as Adley Rutschman) has a huge advantage with the stadium factors alone. Against RHP, Rutschman has a fly-ball rate and pull-rate both above 40%, which is within the range we are looking for.
Littell, meanwhile, has one of the worst HR/9 in the entire MLB at 2.18, and it goes up even higher to 2.70 against LHH. The biggest issue for Littell against lefties is his fly-ball rate (almost 50%) and his pull-rate (above 40%). So, letting batters hit the ball in the and pull it at the Rays home stadium is a recipe for disaster (or, in our case, home runs.)
Rutschman generally hits RHP harder, and he has been hitting well recently, leading the Orioles in barrels and HardHits in the last 14 days, making him a great option to hit another homer tonight.