We have one day game today, with the Mets and Orioles playing a double-header due to a rainout last night. That game starts at 12:05 p.m. ET, with every other game being played in the evening. There are still 11 games total and 20 teams taking the field, giving us ample matchups to analyze for our MLB betting picks today.
Runs should be expected, which we will detail below with our best MLB picks for July 10th.
Best MLB Betting Picks Today, July 10th
Be sure to use MLB betting bonuses on BetMGM and DraftKings to take advantage of these plays below.
| MLB Betting Pick | Odds |
| Nationals Team Total o3.5 | -140 on DraftKings |
| Diamondbacks/Padres o8.5 | -120 on BetMGM |
| Mariners/Yankees o9 | -115 on BetMGM |
Washington Puts up Runs in St. Louis
This is a play on the Nationals bats as a full fade of the starting pitcher Miles Mikolas, who really struggles against left-handed hitters. The Nats lineup is not who you want to see for pitchers who get up by lefties, as they have a bunch of lefty bats to throw at pitchers.
They have six left-handed hitters that Mikolas will have to face off against, three of which have barrel rates above 10% over the last month against righties. One batter that does not have a barrel rate above 10% is Josh Bell, but he will not be an easy out with a HardHit rate of 62.9% against RHP over the last 30 days.
Mikolas, meanwhile, has allowed a barrel rate of 8.1%, HardHit rate of 65.9%, ISO rate of .500 and wOBA of .486 over the last 30 days against lefties, which are horrific numbers across the board. The Nationals scored eight runs last night, so here's hoping they can do something similar tonight in another solid situation.
Expect Runs in San Diego
The Padres home stadium at Petco is admittedly a pitcher’s park, but the expectation is that runs are going be scored in this game tonight. The logic is similar to the Nats team total mentioned above, this time just fading both starting pitchers.
The biggest advantage is going to be the Diamondbacks bats against the Padres starting pitcher Randy Vasquez. Vasquez takes after Mikolas in that he really struggles against left-handed hitters, and the Diamondbacks can throw even more lefties than the Nationals, with seven LHH projected to be in the starting lineup tonight.
Among those seven are three hard hitters in Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte and Josh Naylor. Vasquez allows a 13.7%-barrel rate to LHH on the year, but recently has been hit up by righties too, with a 15.2% against RHH over the last 30 days. The Diamondbacks matched the Nationals with eight runs last night, and it would not be a surprise to see them do that again tonight.
On the other side of the mound is Eduardo Rodriguez, who was a prized free agent a couple years ago but has not pitched well in a Diamondbacks uniform. He has a 5.78 ERA on the year, with a 4.29 FIP showing that he might have gotten slightly unlucky to have that low of an ERA, but still a below-average number overall.
The Padres do not consistently crush LHP, so this is more of a fade of Rodriguez than backing hot bats in San Diego, but they should still be able to put up some runs to help us hit this over.
More Runs in New York Tonight
The Yankees have had a bunch of their games hit the over recently, but there is no reason to fade that as tonight features another great situation for runs. Of the three games mentioned in this article, this is the best weather spot, with a +28% home run index in New York today considering Yankees stadium and the weather.
The Yankees bats are fully back after a minor slump, with the second-best wRC+ in the month of July. Righties, lefties, it has not mattered as the Yankees have been raking.
Bryan Woo is the Mariners starting pitcher, who joins Mikolas and Vasquez mentioned above in that he struggles more against left-handed hitters. The Yankees have some solid lefties to throw at him between Jazz Chisholm Jr (who is on fire), Ben Rice, Cody Bellinger and Jasson Dominguez. Not the same volume as the other two teams, but with the way the Yankees are hitting they should be able to get to Woo and his 9.1%-barrel rate on the year.
As for the Mariners, they are a top six lineup in MLB since June 1st according to wRC+ and have a great matchup against Marcus Stroman of the Yankees. Stroman missed a couple months due to injury and has returned to make two starts but has not looked good in those starts (he did not look good prior to the injury either).
His ERA is solid, but further than that he has allowed a FIP of 5.88, xFIP of 4.62 and a 4.66 SIERA. Those numbers, combined with a barrel rate of 12.1% and low strikeout rate of 11.9% shows a pitcher that has not been in good form. Runs should be scored in this one tonight.