We have a packed Friday MLB slate tonight that features 16 total games due to a double-header between the Guardians and White Sox. It will feature young pitching phenoms in Tarik Skubal, Paul Skenes, along with the touted prospect Chase Burns.
The first game of the double-header starts early, with the rest of the games in the evening. All in all, there are plenty of matchups to analyze for our MLB betting picks. Below, we discuss our favorite MLB prop bets of the day.
Best MLB Betting Picks on Friday
Take advantage of the betting promotions on BetMGM and FanDuel to lock in these MLB picks today.
| MLB Betting Pick | Odds |
| Tigers 1st Half Run Line -0.5 | -140 on FanDuel |
| Blue Jays/Athletics over 10.5 | -110 on BetMGM |
Skubal Pitches Gem in Detroit
This game might feature the largest discrepancy between the starting pitchers with Tarik Skubal on the mound for the Tigers and Luis Castillo for the Mariners. Skubal, of course, won the 2024 Cy Young and is a favorite to win again this year, while Castillo has not been in his best form recently. Combine that with the fact that the Tigers are among the best hitting teams in the MLB, this is not a great situation for the Mariners.
It does not take a baseball genius to know that Skubal is good, but for context, he has the second-best ERA in MLB, the second-best xERA, and the best FIP, xFIP and SIERA.
As far as Luis Castillo goes, he did pitch a gem in his last start, but that was against one of the worst hitting teams in the MLB in the Pittsburgh Pirates, which will not be the case tonight and he had struggled prior to that. Looking at his last five starts, he has allowed a home run every 16.38 at-bats, with a .237 ISO rate, 11.45%-barrel rate and 52.53% HardHit rate.
Those home run numbers specifically is a tough look going up against a Tigers lineup that is a top five home run hitting lineup and has the fifth-best wRC+ against RHP specifically since July 1st.
Runs Scored Between Blue Jays & Athletics
It’s definitely a high total at 10.5, but everything in this matchup points to a bunch of runs to be scored, and it would not be a complete surprise to see both teams get close to double-digits. From a weather perspective, there is no venue more suited for home runs than this game in Sacramento, which is where the A’s are playing their home games for the next couple years.
When the game starts the temperature is going to be in the 100s, with the majority of the game being played at least in the 90s. From there, the wind is going to be blowing out of the stadium to left-center field at 11-14 mph. Sutter Health Park is very receptive to wind, so those winds are going to have an impact on the carry of the baseball.
From there, these teams are starting pitchers that should give up some runs. The Blue Jays starter is Max Scherzer, who was once an ace but no longer at this point in his career. He has a 4.76 ERA, 4.73 FIP and 4.73 SIERA. The Athletics bats can be hit or miss, but they should be counted on for 4-6 runs tonight. On the other side, the Blue Jays could legitimately put up double-digits on Luis Severino, who has not enjoyed pitching at his home stadium.
The Blue Jays bats have crushed RHP recently, with the third-best wRC+ both since May 1st and July 1st. We should see fireworks in this game tonight.