All 30 teams will be hitting the diamond on Monday, giving us plenty of matchups to consider for our MLB betting picks. Register on BetMGM and Fanatics to use promotions for these bets.
It’s a fun slate, with young flamethrowers on the mound in Chase Burns and Troy Melton, along with a couple fun divisional series between the Cubs/Brewers, Rays/Yankees and Blue Jays/Orioles. Continue reading to check analysis for our best MLB betting picks today, July 28th.
Best MLB Betting Picks & Predictions Today
| Betting Pick | Odds |
| Chase Burns Over 5.5 Strikeouts | -135 on BetMGM |
| Troy Melton Over 4.5 Strikeouts | -125 on Fanatics |
| Mariners-Athletics Over 10 Runs | -102 on BetMGM |
Burns Mows Down Dodgers
Burns, for those who do not know who he is, is a young, highly rated pitching prospect for the Reds. He has made five starts this year and has been much better than his initial numbers might indicate. On the surface, an 0-2 record with a 6.65 ERA might not seem that impressive, but that is also misleading.
He had one real blowup start against the Yankees where he only recorded one out and gave up five earned runs. That was the second MLB start of his MLB career where it was rumored that he was tipping pitches, which has been corrected since then.
That was also the only start in which he did not record six or more strikeouts. He has gone 7+ strikeouts in all his other four starts, and digging into his strikeout numbers would put him in rare company.
He has a K/9 of 14.54 and strikeout rate of 35%, which would both be the best in the MLB of all qualified pitchers. While the Dodgers are among the, if not the, best hitting teams in the MLB, they also strike out at the 10th-highest rate in the MLB since June 1st. Take this bet for Burns after winning MLB betting promos with the daily free-to-play game on BetMGM.
Melton Racks Up Ks Against Diamondbacks
For our second play we are backing another young stud strikeout pitcher, this time in Troy Melton of the Tigers. Melton has only made one start in his major league career, so it is an even smaller sample size than Burns above, but he has elite strikeout stuff overall.
In that one start, despite giving up six earned runs, he also managed to get to seven strikeouts in five innings pitched. He really struggled in the first inning and cleaned things up from there. His K/9 of 12.60 and strikeout rate of 29.2% would put him close to Burns and among the tops of all qualified pitchers. His "stuff" across the board is fantastic, he just can struggle with location. He might walk a bunch of batters, but he is also likely to strike a bunch out as well.
The Diamondbacks have been absolutely cratering as a team as the deadline approaches and have looked lifeless at the plate recently. Over the last seven days, they have a paltry wRC+ of 17, which is essentially the equivalent of a AA team lining up at the plate.
In this stretch they have also struck out 33.3% of the time against right-handed pitching, which is also the worst in the MLB. Melton has ladder potential to get up to nine or so strikeouts, but we just need him to hit five to cash this out.
Expect Runs at Sutter Health Park
The Athletics home stadium for the next couple of season is a hitter’s dream, as they are playing at a minor-league ballpark that is very conducive for runs being scored. As for today, the temperature will be in the 90s when the game starts, with double-digit winds blowing out of the stadium. For context, this game has a +30% home run index and +16% run index in general, making it the second-best game of the slate for both home runs and runs in general, only behind Reds’ stadium.
So, for starters, any baseball hit in the air is going to travel, which is great news when looking at both teams and the pitching matchup. The Athletics bats have been hit-or-miss all year, but they have also consistently been better at home.
They have a wRC+ of +105 at home (100 is completely average) and have been a top 10 home lineup since May 1st. They have also been hitting well since the All-Star break, with the fourth-best wRC+ in the MLB since the break.
As for the Mariners, they have not been as hot as the Athletics, but they have the benefit of going up against the left-handed JP Sears of the Athletics. On the year, they have the eighth-best wRC+ against LHP and have the sixth best since June 1st. Sears also has the worst HR/9 (1.86) in the entire MLB of all pitchers that have thrown at least 100 innings, and that number jumps up to 2.70 when pitching at home. This game should feature a ton of runs tonight.