Monday marks the start of a new week and a blank slate for us in the MLB player props market. We only have a handful of games, highlighted by Shohei Ohtani’s return to the mound.
The Dodgers two-way star hasn’t pitched in an MLB game since the 2023 season. He’s expected to be the starter in tonight’s matchup with the rival Padres.
Best MLB Betting Picks for Monday Night
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- Shohei Ohtani under 1.5 strikeouts (-130)
- Trea Turner Over 2.5 hits, runs and RBI (+120)
- Henderson over 1.5 hits, runs and RBI (-135)
MLB Player Prop Pick #1: Ohtani Under 1.5 Strikeouts
According to various reports, Ohtani is only supposed to pitch one inning tonight before giving way to his Dodger teammates. Despite his minimal time on the mound, online sportsbooks are still hanging a strikeout prop of 1.5. That seems incredibly optimistic, despite how Ohtani has looked in simulated sessions.
Ohtani threw 44 pitches over the course of 3 simulated innings last week, recording six strikeouts against lower minor-league talent. The command and velocity he displayed was reportedly very impressive, but the level of competition was nowhere near what he’ll face tonight. San Diego is a top-five NL team, and features a lineup full of proven bats.
Let’s not forget Ohtani’s coming off a second repair of the UCL on his throwing arm, so expecting him to replicate his double-digit K/9 rate from a few years ago seems awfully optimistic. We should be fading him on the mound until we’re given a reason not to.
MLB Player Prop Pick #2: Turner Over 2.5 Hits, Runs and RBIs
Next up, we’re targeting Philadelphia’s Turner in a matchup with Miami’s Sandy Alcantara. Turner enters play slashing .302/.373/.528 this month and is 13-for-37 lifetime against Alcantara, with a home run and five RBI.
Turner has crushed Marlins pitching so far in 2025, posting a .545/.643/.636 slash line versus them, his best line against any opponent. He’s cleared this prop in three of his past four outings and is in great position to do so again this evening.
That’s because Alcantara has been a mess for the bulk of the season. He’s on pace for career-worst marks in losses and ERA, while his K/9 rate has never been lower. The right-hander has seen a significant dip in both velocity and swinging strike rate, while his hard contact allowed mark is above 41% for only the second time in his MLB tenure.
MLB Player Prop #3: Henderson Over 1.5 Hits, Runs and RBI
Lastly, we’re backing Henderson to exceed 1.5 hits, runs and RBI against the Rays. Henderson is slashing .409/.480/.500 over the last seven days, exceeding this line in back-to-back outings, and eight times overall this month.
The former AL rookie of the year is heating up after a slow start, much like the rest of his Baltimore teammates. That spells trouble for Rays starter Ryan Pepiot tonight, who Henderson is 2-for-6 lifetime against, with a home run.
The Orioles ranks sixth in weighted runs created over the past month, and are averaging six runs per game over their last five outings.