After a five-day break due to the All-Star Game, MLB is back on Friday with all 30 teams in action. There is one day game in Chicago between the Red Sox and the Cubs, with the rest of the games starting in the evening. Below, we explain our favorite MLB betting picks for July 18th.
Friday's Best MLB Betting Picks & Odds
| MLB Betting Pick | Odds |
| Jesus Luzardo o6.5 Strikeouts | -115 on DraftKings |
| Orioles Team Total o4.5 | +110 on bet365 |
| Red Sox Moneyline | +115 on bet365 |
Luzardo Mows Down Angels
We’re backing the Phillies Jesus Luzardo to go over 6.5 strikeouts against the Angels. It is admittedly a roller coaster with Luzardo, who seemingly goes from getting shelled to pitching gems, so while it is hard to know what to expect from him, we do know that he has good stuff, and that this Angels team strikes out a lot.
On the entire season, they have the second-highest strikeout rate in the MLB at 25.9%. They are also one of only two teams with a K rate above 25%, which is a very high number. Against left-handed pitching, however, that strikeout rate goes even higher to 28.2%, which leads the MLB. Looking into the individual matchups, they have an astonishing seven guys that strikeout 20% or higher against LHP, with six of them at 25% or higher.
Even as Luzardo has struggled, he has struck out over 30% of the right-handed batters he has seen over the last month, and the Angels are going to have eight of the nine batters in that lineup bat right-handed. They have six true righties and two switch-hitters, who be batting from the right side against the left-handed Luzardo. Take hom to get to seven Ks tonight with MLB betting boosts on DraftKings.
Trust Orioles Bats Against Bradley
The Orioles hitting has come and gone all year, and they have seemingly been about to break out for a month now, but they have a great matchup against Taj Bradley. Bradley is a good pitcher overall, but the Orioles have had his number throughout his career. Bradley has faced the Orioles six times in his career, and in these starts he has an ERA of 8.65. Three times he has allowed five or more earned runs himself, with another time allowing three earned runs in five innings pitched.
The last two times the Orioles have seen Bradley have not gone well for the pitcher, allowing six and five earned runs in those two starts, both of which came this season. Even as the Orioles bats have disappointed this year, they are still a top 10 lineup against the 4-seam fastball from RHP, which Bradley throws roughly 50% of the time.
The hitting conditions are great tonight in Tampa as well, with this game having a +27% home run index due to the Rays home stadium being hitter friendly, especially for left-handed bats due to the short right field porch at Steinbrenner field. With all the lefty bats on the Orioles, they should be able to put some runs on the board.
Red Sox Get the Upset in Chicago
The Red Sox are slight underdogs in this one, but we like them to win straight up. While it is hard to know what to expect from teams after the break, the Red Sox were the legitimately the hottest team in baseball prior to the ASB. They were winners of 10 straight, mowing down every right-handed pitcher they saw.
Since 6/25, the Red Sox have been the best hitting team in baseball against RHP, with the highest wRC+, wOBA, OPS and slugging. That is not a great recipe for the right-handed Colin Rea, especially someone like Rea who struggles against left-handed hitters when the Sox have talented lefties such as Roman Anthony, Wilyer Abreu and Jarren Duran.
On the other side of the mound we have Lucas Giolito, who has surprisingly been decent this year despite taking the 2024 season off and being below-average in 2022 and 2023. On the year, he has a respectable 3.36 ERA with a 3.62 FIP and 3.89 xFIP. Those numbers will not put him in the list of Cy Young contenders, of course, but they are serviceable. We expect the Red Sox to get the job done tonight.