As is the case over the summer, the Thursday MLB slate is a lighter one, with 10 games today. That still gives us 20 teams taking the field, and ample of value to be found across the league for our MLB betting picks.
Below, we explain the best MLB betting picks today, July 3rd.
Thursday's Best MLB Betting Picks & Odds
There are MLB betting bonuses on DraftKings, bet365 and BetMGM that can be used for the following bets.
- Tigers Team Total o4.5 (-140) DraftKings
- Yankees/Blue Jays o8.5 (-118) BetMGM
- Guardians/Cubs u8.5 (+100) bet365
Expect Runs from Detroit
The Tigers team total was a market we were on yesterday, and, for similar logic, it remains a great play in this one as well. The Tigers have among the best bats in the MLB, and they are facing a pitcher that has blow up potential and has really struggled recently in Jake Irvin.
In his last two starts alone he has allowed a combined five home runs, eight extra base hits, and had gotten pummeled overall. In his last five starts he has allowed an ISO rate of .303, barrel rate of 11.36% and a HardHit rate of 50.93%. Those are bad numbers across the board, and he is now unfortunate enough to face a Tigers team that is excellent at the plate.
They have the fifth-best wRC+ on the entire year, with the second-best since May 1st and the best wRC+ in the league since June 1st. Even with stud Kerry Carpenter out for the immediate future, the Tigers should be trusted to put up runs today in Washington.
Look for Fireworks in Toronto
These two teams combined for an absurd 20 runs yesterday, and we are expecting more runs to be scored today in this AL East matchup. For starters, these are among the best hitting teams in the MLB. The Yankees have the second-best wRC+ on the season, with the Blue Jays at the ninth best. While the Yankees have not been as good recently, they are still above average since June 1st, with the Blue Jays still hitting at a top 10 rate in the same stretch of games.
While both starting pitchers are decent, this is more a fade of both bullpen situations, which are both absolutely taxed after the last couple days specifically.
The Yankees bullpen has been a mess all year, while the Blue Jays have had the majority of their best bullpen arms pitch in three out of the last four games, including their two best arms bullpen arms in Jeff Hoffman and Yariel Rodriguez. So, even if runs are not scored early, the expectation is that we could see some fireworks in the late innings to push this one over.
Fade the Offenses in Chicago
Wrigley is the stadium that is the most impacted by weather and wind in the MLB. So, any situation where wind is blowing in at Wrigley is a situation where the offenses could be kept quiet as anything put in the air is going to be smacked down by the wind.
While the winds are not blistering today, there are still mild winds blowing in, which is going to impact how far the baseball travels more than one would expect. For context, one source has this game as a -8% run index (Ballpark Pal), while another one has it as a -6.7% run index (WeatherEdge).
The starting pitchers tonight are not aces, to be clear, but there are reasons to believe they could have some success. The Cubs starting pitcher Cade Horton has worse stats, but the Guardians offense also has the worst wRC+ in the entire MLB since June 1st. They scored three runs early yesterday, then were quieted for most of the rest of the game.
The Cubs offense does have a chance to put up some runs against Luis Ortiz which might make this one a sweat, but nine total runs is a lot in a situation where we do not expect the baseball to carry for a home run hitting team such as the Cubs. Fade the offenses tonight.