The MLB slate gets started early on Wednesday, with a couple day baseball games to dive into. We highlight several matchups in our MLB betting picks.
Tyler Glasnow is making his return after missing a couple months due to injury. There are not a ton of aces on the mound today, though, so expect runs to be high across the board (except in one spot, which we'll get into). Below, we look at some of our favorite MLB props and bets for July 9th.
Wednesday's Best MLB Betting Picks & Predictions
Use the MLB betting bonuses on FanDuel and Caesars to lock these in.
| MLB Betting Pick | Odds |
| Athletics Team Total o4.5 | -138 on FanDuel |
| Rays/Tigers u8 Runs | +100 on Caesars |
| Mets Team Total o5.5 | +102 on FanDuel |
Back the Athletics Offense in Sacramento
The Athletics home stadium for the next couple years is a hitter’s dream. The outfield dimensions are mostly average, but due to the stadium being a minor league park it is very receptive to wind impacting the carry on balls hit in the air. As for today, there are double-digit winds blowing out of the ballpark. Not only that, but the temperatures are in the 90s at the start of the game, and hotter temps also helps with carry. For context, this stadium has a +28% home run index and a +15% run index for today.
The Athletics offense can be very hit or miss, as we have seen prolonged hot streaks and slumps, and the guess here is that they are on their way to a hot streak. In a positive pitching matchup last night, they Athletics put up 10 runs, hitting five home runs as a team. The Braves had a struggling starting pitcher on the mound, who the Athletics tattooed to the form of nine runs in the first two innings.
Luckily for us, the Braves are throwing out another struggling starter tonight, this time in Bryce Elder. Elder has been among the worst pitchers in the MLB this year, with a 5.92 ERA, 6.00 xERA and 5.51 FIP. On top of that, his HR/9 of 1.97 won't help against a raking Athletics team in this venue. They could hit this in the first two innings again tonight.
Fade the Offenses in Detroit
This one is going to feel scary, but we are not projecting nine or more runs in Detroit tonight. The Tigers home stadium is generally a pitcher-friendly park, and while the temperatures are in the high 80s tonight, there are strong winds blowing in from right field. All in all, this game has a -7% home run index due to the stadium and the weather.
While these are two good offenses in general, they have both cooled off somewhat recently, especially the Rays. The Rays have a slightly below average wRC+ over the last 10 days or so with a wRC+ at 91, and that comes after they ended the month of June as one of the best offenses in the MLB. They are also facing off against a good pitcher in Reese Olson, who made his first start in six weeks returning from injury and looked good doing so. He allowed one run in 4.1 innings and should be counted on to go 6+ tonight.
The Tigers offense is still hitting at a top 10 rate in this stretch, but not quite a top three offense, which they are on the year. This is a good situation to back the Rays starter Zack Littell. He has struggled keeping the ball in the park on the year but has been better recently with an ERA of 2.82 since May 1st. With the negative home run index, this is a sneaky spot to fade the Tigers offense, and offense in general in this one.
Mets Offense Stays Hot Tonight
The Mets put up seven runs yesterday, and they have another great opportunity to put up 6+ runs tonight as well. They did go on a slump for a couple weeks but have come out of that recently. They scored 7 runs last night and have scored six or more in four of their last six games. This comes after going under in five straight games prior to that.
This is another weather situation where runs should be expected, with a +17% run index overall, and a 20% home run index specifically.
The Orioles’ starting pitcher is Tomoyuki Sugano, who has struggled immensely recently. In his last five starts he has an 8.87 ERA, 6.98 FIP, 5.49 xFIP and 5.00 SIERA. The biggest issue for Sugano against this Mets lineup is he loves to throw the splitter and 4-seam fastball, to which the Mets have good numbers against. Sugano also struggles against LHH, and the Mets are not the lineup you want to face with Lindor, Soto and Nimmo as hard-hitting lefties.