After a fun holiday weekend in the baseball world, Monday takes somewhat of a step back as we have only 10 games for our MLB betting picks. It is still a solid slate, with aces Jacob deGrom and Cristopher Sanchez taking the mound, and Yu Darvish makes his first start on the year for the Padres.
Those looking to dive into the home run market should check out Great American Ballpark, which is already among the best home run venues in baseball, and for today specifically there is a +10% weather specific home run index in Cincinnati. Below, we explain our favorite MLB picks today, July 7th
Monday's Best MLB Betting Picks & Odds
Check out the MLB betting bonuses on bet365 and FanDuel that can be used for the following bets.
| MLB Betting Pick | Odds |
| deGrom Over 6.5 Strikeouts | -158 on FanDuel |
| Diamondbacks/Padres Over 8 Runs | -105 on bet365 |
| Phillies-Giants Under 7 Runs | +100 on bet365 |
deGrom Mows Down Angels
The odds on this one obviously are not ideal, but this is the perfect matchup for deGrom to rack up strikeouts against the Angels. The Angels offense does score runs, but they also strike out a ton. A ton, meaning, quite literally the highest strikeout rate in the entire MLB against RHP since April 1st. They have stayed at the top spot since May 1st as well, and are one of two teams with a strikeout rate above 25% against righties in this timeframe.
On the other side, deGrom did slightly struggle at the beginning of the year, but he has been mostly fantastic after his first three starts. Taking out those first three starts, which gives us a 14 start sample size, deGrom has an ERA of 1.77 and a FIP of 2.53, two excellent numbers. The strikeouts have been there as well, with a K/9 of 9.03 and strikeout rate of 26.9%.
He has also been going deep into games, making it six or more innings pitched in 10 of those 14 starts, including six straight. He should be counted on to go six innings, and if he does it should not be difficult for deGrom to strike out seven Angels considering how frequently they strike out.
Fade the Pitchers in San Diego
While the Padres home stadium is not known to be a hitter-friendly park, the over is the play here due to fading the pitching situation on both sides. On the Padres side, Yu Darvish is making his season debut. It is tough to know what to expect with him making his first start on the year, and over the last two years Darvish had a FIP above 4, so it would not be a complete surprise to see him struggle, especially in his first start.
Either way, it is extremely unlikely he goes long into the game, and the Padres bullpen had all four of their top arms pitch yesterday.
On the other side, Zac Gallen is pitching for the Diamondbacks, and he has gotten absolutely shelled this entire year. He has the worst ERA in the entire MLB of all qualified pitchers at 5.45, with the eighth-worst xERA and the ninth-worst FIP. On top of that, he has allowed the third-worst barrel rate, which has led to him being among the worst home run pitchers in the MLB with a HR/9 of 1.73 (sixth worst in MLB). With the Diamondbacks bullpen having the third-worst ERA in the MLB, the Padres should have no issues putting up runs either.
Fade the Offenses in San Francisco
While the pitchers are to fade in the Padres game, this Phillies vs. Giants game is the opposite situation in another pitcher-friendly park. Oracle Park in general is among the worst park for hitters, and this game tonight features two offenses that are not at their peak form facing off against two good starting pitchers.
The Phillies offense has really struggled over the last couple weeks, with a below average wRC+ of 95 since 6/24. They have played 12 games since then and have scored four or fewer runs in eight of those games. The majority of those were played in the hitter-friendly confines of Citizens Bank Park, and two of the games they scored five or more runs were in this past series against the Reds, who have among the worst pitching staffs in baseball.
Landen Roupp is on the mound for the Giants, who has been mostly great recently. He has allowed two or fewer runs in seven of his last nine starts, and the Phillies offense has really struggled against LHP such as Roupp. Since 6/1, the Phillies have the tenth-worst offense in baseball against lefties.
Then, on the other side of the mound, Cristopher Sanchez is pitching for the Phillies. Not only is he a fantastic pitcher, but this Giants offense has struggled against lefties all year. They have the seventh-worst wRC+ on the year against LHP, and the fourth worst since June 1st. Expect this one to be low scoring in SF tonight.