The Monday slate features 13 games to consider for our MLB best bets. There’s a double-header between the Brewers and Cubs at Wrigley Field, which is the most fun matchup of the day. And we have another entertaining inter-league series between the Mariners and Phillies.
Below, we explain the best MLB betting picks for today, August 18th. Use MLB betting bonuses on bet365, Fanatics and BetMGM to place these bets.
Monday’s MLB Best Bets & Odds
| MLB Pick | Odds |
| Jack Flaherty 7+ Strikeouts | +125 on bet365 |
| White Sox Team Total o3.5 | -105 on Fanatics |
| Angels Moneyline | -102 on BetMGM |
Flaherty Mows Down the Astros
Flaherty has struggled in his last two starts, allowing a combined 10 earned runs over those two starts, but he has a good matchup tonight to turn that around against the Astros. Flaherty struggles much more against left-handed bats and also has a much higher strikeout rate against righties.
On the year, he has a strikeout rate of 31.8% against RHH, up from 25.8% against LHH. 25% is still a solid number, but that 31.8% number would be the third-highest strikeout rate in the entire MLB if extrapolated out to all qualified hitters. That is important as the Astros will most likely have seven of their nine batters hit from the right side tonight.
Of the two left-handed hitters, one of them (Jacob Melton) has a strikeout rate of 39.5% against right-handed pitching on the season, and 33% over the last 30 days. So, after struggling in his last two starts, look for Flaherty to bounce back tonight and rack up seven or more strikeouts.
Fade Strider, Back White Sox to Score Runs
There was a two year stretch back in 2022 and 2023 when Spencer Strider was one of the best young pitchers in baseball, but it has been a tough two years for him. After missing most of the 2024 season with an elbow injury, Strider returned this season but has not yet gotten back to his old self. He has made five starts since the All-Star break, and in those five starts he has a 6.57 ERA, 6.28 FIP and 4.30 SIERA. His batted ball profile is not much better, allowing a barrel rate of 12.8% and HardHit rate of 44.9%.
That would give him the highest barrel rate of all qualified pitchers in the MLB if extrapolated out and tied for the 10th-worst HardHit rate. He has really struggled keeping the ball in the yard, allowing a HR/9 of 2.55 in these five starts, which is a bad sign today specifically with fantastic home run weather in Atlanta today. There is a +22% home run index at Truist Park, which is tied with Coors Field as the best home run venue of the day.
On the other side, since the All-Star break the White Sox have been surprisingly raking at the plate. In this stretch, they have the fifth-best wRC+, seventh-best wOBA and sixth-best OPS. They should be able to put up four or more runs tonight.
Back Angels Against Reds
The Reds are coming off a win over the Brewers in extra innings yesterday, ending the Brewers long win streak. That was the second-straight game that went into extras between those two teams, with yesterday going into the 10th inning and Saturday’s game ending in the 11th.
What this means, however, is that the Reds bullpen is in dire straits, and now they must travel from Milwaukee to LA for a series against the Angels. That Reds bullpen has had all three of their major arms pitch in two straight games, with their closer Emilio Pagan blowing the save in two straight. The Reds already do not have a good bullpen overall, and they will likely be missing these top three arms.
While the Angels starting pitcher Victor Medroth is somewhat of an unknown only throwing eight innings this year with admittedly below-average numbers, this is a Reds team that does not garner much confidence at the plate. On the year, they have the seventh-worst wRC+ overall, and they have been even worse recently with the third-worst wRC+ since the ASB.
It might take runs in the late innings but look for the Angels to get the job done at home tonight.