One could make the argument that Wednesdays are the most fun day over the summer, as they pretty much always feature a full slate of 15 games, including a bunch of day games on the schedule. That is no different today, with the earliest game scheduled for first pitch at 12:35 pm ET between the Blue Jays and the Orioles. We consider each matchup for our MLB best bets for July 30th.
We’re hoping to end the month with some momentum. Below, we explain our favorite MLB betting picks for Wednesday.
MLB Best Bets & Odds for Wednesday
| MLB Betting Pick | Odds |
| Zebby Matthews Over 5.5 Strikeouts | -120 on Fanatics |
| Brewers Moneyline | -118 on FanDuel |
| Rays Moneyline | +120 on FanDuel |
Matthews Mows Down Red Sox
Matthews, the Twin starting pitcher today, has been in and out of the MLB rotation on the year, but has consistently been able to strike out a bunch of batters even as he has bounced around between either being injured or sent down to the minor leagues. He started the year in AAA and was called up in the middle of May but missed about six weeks from early June to mid-July due to a shoulder issue.
Overall, he has only made six starts this season. That said, he has recorded six or more strikeouts in four of those six starts. He missed in his first start of the year, and in the start in which he injured his shoulder. He has made two starts since returning from that shoulder injury and has hit this number in both of those starts. That includes a tough start against the Rockies in Colorado, a famously difficult place for pitchers.
He has an elite strikeout rate of 30.6% and K/9 of 11.79 on the year, which would give him the best K/9 in the MLB of all qualified pitchers and the fifth-best K rate.
The Red Sox, meanwhile, have the fourth-highest strikeout rate against RHP in the MLB on the year, and have stayed relatively at that same strikeout number since June 1st as well.
Back Hottest Team in Baseball in the Brewers
The Brewers have won 14 of their last 17 games, which has given them the best record in the entire MLB and a two-game lead in the NL Central. They also have the second-best run differential in the league as well, so this is no fluke.
This will be the third game of this series against the Cubs, of which the Brewers have relatively easily won the first two. The Cubs are on the other end of the spectrum, struggling a bit recently, losers of six of their last nine games. It, unfortunately, looks as though the Cubs are due to continue to struggle tonight, with the left-handed Shota Imanaga on the mound.
Imanaga is a lefty, and the Brewers have been the best team in the MLB against LHP since 6/1. It does not help Imanaga that he throws the 4-seam fastball roughly half the time, and the Brewers have the second-best OPS against the 4-seam FB from LHP in this same stretch of games.
The Cubs bats have really cooled off recently compared to how good they have been on the entire year, so the expectation is that Freddy Peralta is able to limit the damage, giving the Brewers the win once again tonight.
Rays Upset Yankees in New York
Without Aaron Judge in the lineup for the Yankees, they are primed to get upset by the Rays today. The starting pitching matchup is a slight advantage in favor of the Rays, with Will Warren on the bump for the Yankees and Zack Littell for the Rays.
Warren has allowed a 6.29 ERA, 6.29 FIP and 5.14 SIERA over his last five starts, bad numbers across the board. Littell, meanwhile, has not been perfect recently, of course, but has a respectable 3.52 ERA and a 4.14 FIP.
Warren specifically has had trouble keeping the ball in the yard, allowing a home run every 19.50 at-bats over this five week stretch. That specifically is a death sentence in this game today, which has the highest home run index of all games today thanks to temperatures in the 90s throughout the entire game and winds blowing out to right field.
Littell struggled with the long ball to begin the year, but has been better recently, allowing a home run every 29.50 at-bats over this same five-week span.
Neither of these bullpens are that good, but the Yankees bullpen specifically has really struggled over the last 30 days, allowing a barrel rate of 10%, HardHit rate of 52% and .225 ISO rate. Rays get the job done tonight.