Today’s MLB betting slate features nine MLB games to dive into. Not quite a full 15 game slate, of course, but Mondays are always a travel day in the MLB with not as many games.
The first game is scheduled for 6:35 between the Rangers and the Orioles, and please check out our best MLB bets for today, Monday June 23.
MLB Best Bets for Monday
Check out the MLB betting bonuses on bet365 and FanDuel to make the best MLB bets of the day:
- Yankees vs. Reds over 10 (-115 on bet365)
- Diamondbacks vs. White Sox over 9 (+100 on bet365)
- Texas Rangers Moneyline (+110 on FanDuel)
Expect Runs in Cincinnati
The best venue for hitters for the day is, of course, the Reds home stadium at Great American Ballpark. Already a hitter-friendly park due to the short outfields, today specifically features temps in the 90s, which is going to help with carry. Expect home runs in this game and runs to be scored in general.
The deepest the Reds outfield goes is 404 feet at dead center but has a short porch across the rest of the outfield. So, the ball does not need to get hit very far for it to clear a fence, and for today specifically the hot temperature is going to help the ball travel farther than normal. So, this is an excellent situation for runs to be scored, and both starting pitchers should get hit up as well.
Nick Lodolo is pitching for the Reds, who has decent stuff, but really struggles pitching at home. It makes sense since his home stadium is a hitter’s park, but at home he allows a .270 average, .487 slugging, .354 wOBA, a 5.71 FIP and 4.49 xFIP. All of those numbers across the board are worse at home than they are away. The Yankees bats also have some pop, so it would not be a surprise to see them score up to eight runs or so.
The Yankees starting pitcher, meanwhile, is a little more of an unknown as we have Allan Winans making his first start in the majors this year. He did make two starts last year, however, and got shelled. In 7.20 innings he had a comically bad 15.26 ERA, with a 7.05 xERA, 8.78 FIP and 5.66 xFIP. According to FanGraphs, his Stuff+ (which measures the "stuff" of a pitcher’s arsenal based on factors such as velocity, movement, spin rate, location) is below-average across the board.
It is always scary backing the Reds bats as they can go ice cold at what seems like a moment’s notice, they have a great opportunity to put up a bunch of runs today.
More Positive Weather in Chicago Leads to Scoring
Another game in which runs should be expected is this Diamondbacks/White Sox matchup today, as this is another positive home run venue with batter advantages over the starting pitching. This is another situation where the temperatures are in the 90s, with winds blowing right to left. From strictly a weather perspective, this game has the highest positive runs added on the board today.
The White Sox bats certainly are nothing to write home about, but they are going up against a pitcher that has struggled for two years now in Eduardo Rodriguez. It is unfortunate, as Rodriguez was a prize free agent for the Diamondbacks two years ago, but he has not pitched well in an Arizona uniform. Last year, his ERA was 5.04 and this year it is even worse, up to 5.93. His FIP (4.41), xFIP (4.08) and SIERA (4.02) show a slightly unlucky but still below-average pitcher.
On the other side, Shane Smith is pitching for the White Sox, who has decent numbers, but advanced stats show a pitcher that can get hit up. His xERA (3.92) is over a full run worse than his ERA (2.85), and his xFIP (4.32) is just under a full run worse than his FIP (3.54). For context, his SIERA of 4.30 would be the 24th-worst in the MLB.
Smith also throws a 4-seam fastball roughly 50% of the time, and the Diamondbacks have the third-best barrel rate in the MLB against 4-seamers from RHP. Both teams should be able to score today.
Rangers Win in Baltimore
The Rangers getting a plus-money price to win in Baltimore is a good value play on the board. It seems as though the books are paying a tax on Patrick Corbin, who has actually been decent this year. Granted, he was the worst pitcher in baseball for about five straight years, but this year specifically Corbin has been solid. While his advanced numbers show he is slightly lucky to have an ERA below 4.00, he is significantly better against LHH, and the Orioles have lefties up and down their lineup.
On the year, lefties are slashing a .194 average, .358 slugging and .276 wOBA against Corbin, below-average numbers across the board. The Orioles, meanwhile, have the fourth-worst wRC+ against left-handed pitching.
The Rangers are also hitting left-handed pitching much better recently than they were at the beginning of the year, with the 11th-best wRC+ against LHP since 6/1. The Orioles are also throwing a lefty on the mound in Trevor Rogers, who has admittedly been good this year but only in two starts. Rogers struggled last year, so it remains to be seem if his success this year is due to the small sample size.
The Rangers bullpen, which had struggled most of the year, has also been throwing well recently, so the Rangers are a great upset selection today.
Full MLB Schedule on Monday
- Rangers vs. Orioles (6:35 pm ET)
- Braves vs. Mets (7:10 pm ET)
- Yankees vs. Reds (7:10 pm ET)
- Diamondbacks vs. White Sox (7:40 pm ET)
- Pirates vs. Brewers (7:40 pm ET)
- Mariners vs. Twins (7:40 pm ET)
- Cubs vs. Cardinals (7:45 pm ET)
- Red Sox vs. Angels (9:38 pm ET)
- Nationals vs. Padres (9:40 pm ET)