The best of MLB will be displayed during the All-Star break. We’ve made it through the Home Run Derby, meaning it’s time to look at MLB All-Star Game props. First pitch is set for 8 pm ET at Truist Park in Atlanta, Georgia.
The Braves’ home stadium is the venue for the game on Tuesday night, which is important to consider when making prop bets. The weather will be in the high 80s and low 90s, which is generally considered great for hitters.
We will be diving into different MLB All-Star Game props, providing our favorite MVP bet and home run picks.
MLB All-Star Game Props: MVP Betting Analysis
There are multiple factors when deciding who to take as the MVP. First, and most importantly, it is incredibly difficult to predict the MVP, and the odds reflect that. Generally, the MVP award comes down to a reserve batter who comes up clutch in a late-game situation, and that is almost impossible to predict.
For context, last year’s winner was Jarren Duran, who broke a 5th-inning tie with a home run, and that ended up being the decisive at-bat. In 2023, it was Rockies catcher Elias Diaz who took home the award, who similarly hit a late-game home run to decide the game.
One position that we can pretty much immediately rule out are the pitchers, as only two pitchers have won the award since the year 2000. Shane Bieber won in 2019 and Mariano Rivera in 2013, but both pitchers won in their home stadium, and that was also Rivera’s last year in the league.
So, it was a sentimental MVP in both situations, and the Braves do not have a pitcher in the game tonight (Chris Sale made the team but will not be participating due to injury).
One way to narrow down the field is to look at the bats on the reserves side, which brings us to our favorite MLB All-Star Game prop bet for MVP.
Elly De La Cruz to Win MVP: Odds at +3300 on FanDuel
It’s a shot in the dark, so all we are trying to do here is put ourselves in the best position to have a batter with the possibility of coming up in a big spot late in the game. The NL is the team we are predicting to win, so it makes sense to ride with a player on the NL to win the MVP as well. De La Cruz can impact the game in many different ways.
While his raw power and home run numbers are not as good as other batters participating, he is an excellent fielder and baserunner, so we have the possibility that he takes home the award with late game heroics that does not involve a home run. Of course, he can still get ahold of one and clear a fence as well, as it is not as though he is completely incapable of hitting home runs with 18 on the year.
With De La Cruz being the only reserve shortstop, the possibility exists that we can steal more plate appearances for him than some of the other reserves depending on how long starter Francisco Lindor stays in the game.
There are five reserve infield spots and four reserve outfielders, but none of the other in-fielders play the shortstop position, and it is also somewhat of a mystery how the fielding aspect is going to be deployed for the rest of the players in reserve. So, why not roll with Elly De La Cruz to take home the hardware.
MLB All-Star Game Home Run Picks
While it makes sense to lock in De La Cruz to hit a home run after taking him to win the MVP, there are two other batters who we like to go long from each team.
- Cal Raleigh (+600 on FanDuel)
- Ketel Marte (+900 on FanDuel)
It does not take a genius to get the logic behind Raleigh, as he is the current MLB leader in home runs with 36. Diving into all his different metrics, it is remarkable truly how good Raleigh has been at the plate this year. He is in the 90th percentile in terms of bat speed, with the 5th-best barrel rate in the MLB (20%), and the best fly-ball rate (57.6%) and pull-rate (56.3%). It is no surprise he leads the MLB with those types of numbers.
He also shares a characteristic with Marte (and De La Cruz, for that matter), in that they are both switch-hitters who can mash at both sides of the plate. So, with this game featuring a ton of different pitchers cycling through, we will count on always getting the optimal batter vs. pitcher handedness regardless of who is on the mound.