The Mets, powered by a steady arm in Clay Holmes who boasts a formidable 2.99 ERA, look to open their series against the Baltimore Orioles with a victory Tuesday night.
The visiting Mets face an Orioles squad sending Brandon Young to the mound, who has struggled to find his footing this season, posting an 0-3 record with a 7.02 ERA.
The Mets (52-39) arrive in Baltimore with some momentum after stopping a prolonged tailspin with a series victory over the Yankees. The Orioles (40-49) come in with some momentum of their own after sweeping the Braves in Atlanta. Despite a miserable start, Baltimore remains within striking distance of a wild card spot, making this a key series with the trade deadline looking just a few weeks out.
New York Mets vs. Baltimore Orioles Odds
| Bet Type | New York Mets Odds | Baltimore Orioles Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | -1.5 (+125) | +1.5 (-149) |
| Moneyline | -133 | +110 |
| Total Runs | Over 10 (-110) | Under 10 (-110) |
Odds as of July 8, 2025 from MGM.
The odds reflect the significant pitching advantage for the New York Mets. With Clay Holmes on the mound, the Mets are established as road favorites.
The Orioles face a tough challenge, reflected in their underdog status at home. The run line of +1.5 comes with heavy juice, suggesting that while a close game is possible, the market leans towards a Mets victory by multiple runs. The total is set at a high 10 runs, a nod to Brandon Young's struggles and a warm Baltimore forecast that could help the ball carry.
Mets vs. Orioles Odds Movement & Analysis
The betting market has shown clear conviction in the New York Mets and a high-scoring affair. The Mets' moneyline opened at -125 and has been bet up to -133, while the Orioles have drifted from +105 to +110. This movement indicates that early money, likely influenced by the lopsided pitching matchup, has favored the visitors.
The most significant shift occurred with the game total, which opened at 9.5 runs and has climbed to 10. The initial Over price of -115 has settled to a standard -110, but the half-run jump is a strong indicator of market sentiment. This is driven by Brandon Young's alarming 7.02 ERA and a Mets offense that ranks among the league's best.
The public betting splits confirm this, with over 80% of moneyline bets backing New York and over 67% of total bets landing on the Over. The combination of a struggling starter, a potent offense, and favorable hitting weather has created a perfect storm for upward movement on the total.
Mets vs. Orioles – Starting Pitcher Matchups & Batter History
New York Mets Batters vs Brandon Young
There is no available batter-versus-pitcher history for the New York Mets against Baltimore Orioles starter Brandon Young.
Without historical data, the analysis shifts to approach. Young's 7.02 ERA and 1.42 WHIP on the season don't inspire a ton of confidence. He has yet to complete five full innings and is coming off a four-inning outing in which he yielded three earned runs on six hits and two walks. Frankly, this could be a nightmare matchup against a patient and powerful Mets lineup that boasts a top-7 OPS (.742).
Baltimore Orioles Batters vs Clay Holmes
Holmes, a premier sinkerballer, presents a difficult challenge for an Orioles offense that has been scuffling, having scored fewer than four runs in four of their last five contests and is missing key pieces. His ability to induce ground balls at a high rate can neutralize rallies and lead to quick innings.
The Orioles' left-handed bats, such as Gunnar Henderson and Colton Cowser, will have the platoon advantage but must show discipline against Holmes' heavy sinker that bores in on their hands. With the Orioles' offense already struggling to generate runs and dealing with significant injuries, facing an elite ground-ball pitcher like Holmes could suppress their scoring potential even further.
Orioles vs. Mets July 8 Batter Props
| PLAYER | HITS | TOTAL BASES | HOME RUNS | RBIs | RUNS SCORED |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juan Soto (NYM) | 1.5 (O +179 | U -249) | 1.5 (O -104 | U -132) | (O +263) | 0.5 (O +131 | U -180) | 0.5 (O -171 | U +123) |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 (O -256 | U +178) | 1.5 (O +102 | U -139) | (O +322) | 0.5 (O +133 | U -182) | 0.5 (O -114 | U -120) |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 1.5 (O +167 | U -231) | 1.5 (O -112 | U -123) | (O +327) | 0.5 (O +142 | U -195) | 0.5 (O -144 | U +102) |
| Gunnar Henderson (BAL) | 1.5 (O +169 | U -231) | 1.5 (O -108 | U -124) | (O +393) | 0.5 (O +135 | U -186) | 0.5 (O -112 | U -125) |
| Ryan O'Hearn (BAL) | 0.5 (O -256 | U +184) | 1.5 (O +127 | U -172) | (O +482) | 0.5 (O +140 | U -191) | 0.5 (O +109 | U -152) |
| Jackson Holliday (BAL) | 0.5 (O -261 | U +184) | 1.5 (O +120 | U -163) | (O +473) | 0.5 (O +204 | U -287) | 0.5 (O -114 | U -123) |
MLB batter props as of July 8, 2025 from MGM & consensus sportsbooks.
Orioles vs. Mets July 8 Pitcher Props
| PITCHER | STRIKEOUTS | EARNED RUNS | WALKS ALLOWED | HITS ALLOWED | INNINGS PITCHED |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clay Holmes (NYM) | 4.5 (O -128 | U +100) | 2.5 (O -110 | U -128) | N/A | 5.5 (O +105 | U -143) | 5.5 (O -111 | U -125) |
| Brandon Young (BAL) | 3.5 (O -118 | U -110) | 2.5 (O -133 | U -105) | N/A | 5.5 (O +120 | U -175) | 4.5 (O -139 | U +100) |
MLB pitcher props as of July 8, 2025 from MGM.
For player props, the value appears to be on the Mets' side. Given Brandon Young's 7.02 ERA, taking the over 2.5 Earned Runs (-133) for him is a strong play. Young has allowed at least three earned in each of his five starts this season. Consequently, props for Mets hitters like Pete Alonso Over 1.5 Total Bases (+102) and Juan Soto Over 0.5 Runs Scored (-171) are attractive.
On the other side, Clay Holmes' line for Under 2.5 Earned Runs (-128) is appealing against an injury-depleted Orioles lineup. The Orioles have struggled against quality pitching, and Holmes has allowed two or fewer runs in five of his last six starts.
Mets vs. Orioles Picks & Prediction
Several key trends support a Mets victory. The Mets have been excellent as favorites this season, posting a 45-25 (.643) record. The Orioles, meanwhile, have faltered against quality opponents, going just 4-10 (.286) in their last 14 home games against teams with a winning record. Furthermore, Baltimore is just 1-4 in its last five games as a home underdog. The total also warrants a close look, as the over has hit in 7 of the Mets' last 10 road games, a trend that aligns perfectly with Young's high ERA and a warm night at Camden Yards.
Picks:
NYM vs. BAL Public Betting Splits
| Bet Type | Handle % | Bet % |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | ||
| New York Mets | 94.32% | 80.38% |
| Baltimore Orioles | 5.68% | 19.62% |
| Run Line | ||
| New York Mets -1.5 | 91.55% | 81.16% |
| Baltimore Orioles +1.5 | 8.45% | 18.84% |
| Total Runs | ||
| Over 10 | 67.14% | 67.46% |
| Under 10 | 32.86% | 32.54% |
The public and sharp money are heavily aligned in this contest. An overwhelming 94% of the moneyline handle is on the Mets. Similarly, the run line and the Over are seeing the bulk of the action, which corresponds with the significant line movement in those markets.