There are only nine games on the MLB slate for today, as is typical with Thursday being a travel day. There are a couple good weather spots (Coors Field, of course), with a lot of solid matchups to dive into for our home run picks.
We did manage to get one to come through yesterday thanks to Jo Adell, so let's hope to keep it rolling tonight with our best MLB home run predictions for today, June 26th.
Best Home Run Picks for Thursday
Try using MLB betting bonuses on FanDuel and bet365 to make these home run picks. Collect a guaranteed $150 bonus on each sportsbook app.
- Teoscar Hernandez (+250) at FanDuel
- Francisco Lindor (+450) at bet365
- Jordan Beck (+500) at FanDuel
Hernandez Homers in Colorado
The price here at +250 is obviously pretty steep, but for good reason when considering everything involved. This play backing Hernandez to hit a home run checks essentially all three boxes when locking in a home run prediction: the venue (stadium + weather), a hot batter, and a good pitching matchup against a home run throwing pitcher.
We all know Coors is a solid home run hitting stadium due to the high altitude that leads to the ball carrying more, but for today specifically the temperatures are in the 90s, which will help with carry even more than normal.
From there, one could make the argument that Hernandez is swinging the hottest bat on the Dodgers at this moment in time. He leads the team in total HardHits over the last seven (11) and last 14 days (18), and he also crushed the baseball yesterday. He had three total HardHits, and all three were hit above 100+ mph exit velocity. Hot batter: check
As for the pitching matchup, Austin Gomber is on the mound for the Rockies, who is definitely a home run thrower. He has only made two starts this year, so it is admittedly a small sample size, but in those two starts he has allowed three home runs to RHH, allowing a HR/9 of 3.68. He is also a lefty, and Hernandez crushes left-handed pitching with an ISO rate of .392 against LHP, up from .189 against RHP. Pitching matchup: check.
Lindor Goes Yard for Mets
While this play on Lindor might not check every box, it is a still a great play, and we are also getting significantly better odds on him compared to Hernandez. The one issue here is that this is only a neutral home run venue as opposed to a great one, but everything else looks great for Lindor.
Lindor, just like Hernandez, had a great day at the plate yesterday for the Mets with three HardHits. All three of those were also hit above 100+ mph in terms of exit velocity, with one of them being a flyout that was 102.9 mph off the bat that traveled 414 feet. That flyout would have been a home run in 22/30 stadiums, which is brutal for anybody who had Lindor to hit a home run yesterday but does show a batter who is seeing the ball well.
Grant Holmes is pitching for the Braves, who has struggled with the long ball this year. His HR/9 on the year is a subpar 1.48, while allowing a barrel rate of 12.2% and a HardHit rate of 43.7%. For context, that is the fourth-worst barrel rate allowed in the MLB, with the 19th-worst HardHit rate.
After having bad luck in the home run department last night, let's hope Lindor corrects that tonight.
Beck Matches Hernandez with a Dinger
Lastly, we are heading back to Denver and rolling with a player on the Rockies in Jordan Beck. Obviously, he benefits from the same hitting conditions as Hernandez, while also having a good pitching matchup to dive into. Beck is not quite as hot at the plate as Hernandez, but he is still hitting decently well with eight HardHits in his last seven games, and 14 HardHits and four barrels in the last two weeks. Not incredible numbers, of course, but not horrible either.
The biggest thing here in favor for Beck, which matches Hernandez, is that he is going up against a left-handed pitcher, and Beck has phenomenal numbers against lefties this year. On the year, he has an ISO rate of .273 and barrel rate of 18.2% against lefties, which are both excellent numbers. Over the last 30 days, that barrel rate has increased to 20% against LHP, in a decent sample size of 25 plate appearances.
Clayton Kershaw is pitching for the Dodgers, who is surely one of the best pitchers of his generation, but also not the pitcher he was a decade ago. Beck should be able to have success against Kershaw, hopefully hitting a home run.