We don’t have a huge MLB slate on Monday, with only seven games on the schedule. That said, there are two venues that stand out from a home run perspective that we are going to dive into. So, check out the best MLB home run picks for today, June 16th.
Best Home Run Picks for Monday, June 16th
Try using MLB betting bonuses on FanDuel and bet365 to make these home run picks:
- Brent Rooker to hit a home run (+340 on FanDuel)
- Jordan Westburg to hit a home tun (+425 on bet365)
- Brandon Lowe to hit a home run (+450 on bet365)
- Jonathan Aranda to hit a home run (+425 on bet365)
Rooker Goes Long at Suter Field
Speaking of home run venues, the most positive stadium is the home stadium for the Athletics, Suter Field. It is on the smaller side in terms of the size of the outfields, and today specifically there are 11-14 mph winds blowing out to left field. So, any ball hit with a minor amount of power has a chance to clear a fence.
As far as Rooker goes, he has admittedly been hit or miss on the year, but has been hitting the ball hard pretty consistently in the month of June. He has 26 HardHits and seven barrels since June 2nd, with all those barrels coming in the last 10 days.
He is going up against Lance McCullers, who is not horrible but can be had by righties. McCullers has given up four home runs this year, three have been off RHH. His HR/9 against righties is 1.98 and only 0.75 against lefties.
The biggest difference is his ground-ball rate is above 50% against lefties and only 32% against righties. Lastly, the biggest home run pitch for McCullers is his slider, which just so happens to be a pitch that Rooker crushes with a 17.4%-barrel rate and 56.5% HardHit rate against sliders from RHP.
Westburg Hits a Homer for the Orioles
The Rays home stadium is another positive home run venue, although it is better for left-handed pull hitters than it is a righty such as Westburg (which we will talk about). That said, Westburg has been crushing the baseball, and it is still a positive home run script for a righty today in Tampa, so nothing to be feared of there.
Westburg returned to the lineup 6/10, and in that stretch, he has played five games and already has three home runs. He also has 10 HardHits and three barrels. All three of his home runs have been hit off RHP, which is what he is facing tonight.
Ryan Pepiot is similar to Lance McCullers detailed earlier, in that he is not a horrible pitcher, but he can get hit up by RHH. He has allowed a home run every 22 at-bats against RHH on the year and over his last five starts. Here's hoping Westburg can stay hot at the plate tonight.
- Lowe to hit a home run (+450)
- Aranda to hit a home run (+425)
Instead of choosing just one batter on the Rays, it made more sense to spray the board with two lefties, who both have as good of circumstances you can ask for when looking at a batter to hit a home run.
As mentioned earlier, the Rays home stadium has a very short porch at right field, so left-handed hitters have a huge home run advantage when playing in Tampa. Not only that, but today specifically the temperature is in the mid-80s, with 10 mph winds blowing out to left field. Both of those are going to help with carry for any ball hit in the air.
To go even further than that, the Orioles pitcher, Zach Eflin, really struggles against left-handed hitters. On the year, he has allowed a barrel rate of 11.8% against LHH, and in the last 30 days he has allowed a home run every 11.50 at-bats or so to a lefty.
His worst pitch is the cutter, which is responsible for five of the seven home runs he has allowed to lefties in this stretch, and both Lowe and Aranda have good numbers against cutters from RHP. So, instead of trying to decide between which one we liked better, why not ride with both.