There are 15 MLB games to dive into for today's home run picks, with a bunch of day games specifically thanks to a typical Wednesday schedule. This article will detail our three favorite HR props, which you can place using bonuses on bet365 and FanDuel.
There is solid hitting weather across the slate today, and below we look at games specifically at Yankee Stadium, Comerica Park (Tigers home stadium) and Rate Field (White Sox home stadium). Please read below for the best MLB home run picks today, July 30th.
Best MLB Home Run Picks for Wednesday
| Home Run Pick | Odds |
| Jonathan Aranda | +375 on bet365 |
| Kerry Carpenter | +400 on FanDuel |
| Colson Montgomery | +575 on bet365 |
Trust Aranda in New York Tonight
Of all the MLB games today, this one at Yankee Stadium has the highest rated home run index on the board. The temperature is going to be in the 90s throughout the entire game, with slight winds blowing out to fight field in a stadium that is relatively receptive to wind. So, add all that together to get a +36% home run index.
Aranda did just hit a home run yesterday, but he has those weather factors in his favor, along with solid hitting form recently and a good pitching matchup to once again go yard tonight. Over the last week, Aranda has a respectable eight HardHits and three barrels, which will not put him in the Hall of Fame, of course, but are good enough for our purposes.
Will Warren is the starting pitcher for the Yankees, who really struggles against lefty bats. On the year, he has allowed a home run every 21 at-bats to lefties, but that number goes up to every 11 ABs over the last five weeks. In this stretch, he has allowed a horrible 12.73%-barrel rate to lefties as well.
The biggest issue is his 4-seam fastball, which he throws over half the time to LHH. Aranda, meanwhile, has fantastic numbers against the 4-seamer with a 1.025 OPS, 0.423 wOBA, along with a 13%-barrel rate, 57% HardHit rate and 40% fly-ball rate. View different MLB betting odds boosts for this AL East matchup and other games on the bet365 app.
Carpenter Goes Deep in Detroit
Kerry Carpenter recently returned from the IL for the Tigers, and after a quiet game in his first start back, he had a great day at the plate yesterday. He had three total HardHits along with a barrel, with two of those leaving the bat with 100+ mph exit velocity. So, after one game to get his timing back it seems as though Carpenter is in good form after some time off.
The Tigers home stadium has interesting dimensions with a short right and left field porch but is deep to center field. Luckily, Carpenter does a good job pulling the ball in the air, with both a fly-ball rate and pull-rate above 40%. Those numbers are most likely why Carpenter seems to hit for more power at home, with an ISO rate of .275 at home, compared to .204 away.
In terms of the pitching matchup, Ryne Nelson is the starter for the Diamondbacks. He is not a terrible pitcher overall, but he can get hit up by lefties, allowing a home run every 20.50 at-bats against lefties over the last five weeks. One area where he really struggles is allowing lefties to put the ball in the air, allowing a fly-ball rate of 45% to LHH in this stretch. That is tough going up against Carpenter, who does a great job lifting the ball in the air.
Montgomery Hits Homer for White Sox
Montgomery, for those who do not know, is a young hitter for the White Sox who was recently called up at the beginning of July. After a slow start to his major league career, he has been hitting well over the last week.
He has five barrels and 12 HardHits over the last week, putting him in a solid category of hitters over this stretch. He has also hit four home runs in this stretch, which makes sense when looking into his fantastic fly-ball rate of 58% and pull-rate of 75% over these last seven games.
The White Sox bats struggled yesterday, but they have the benefit of going up against Taijuan Walker tonight, who has allowed a horrific five home runs over his last two starts. Overall, he has allowed a home run every 14 at-bats over the last five weeks, which includes some bullpen appearances in that stretch.
Montgomery will benefit from 10-14 mph winds blowing to right field, which will help a left-handed hitter who has been great at pulling the ball in the air. He goes yard today.