Thursday’s MLB slate is about as light of a schedule you'll see the entire summer. The Yankees host the Rays at 1:05 pm ET, followed by two games in the evening with the Braves-Reds and Rangers-Mariners.
We will be focusing on the best MLB home run picks today, July 31st. After getting two of our three predictions correct yesterday, we’re looking to stay hot with the following HR prop bets.
Best MLB Home Run Picks for Thursday
| Home Run Pick | Odds |
| Trent Grisham | +400 on bet365 |
| Brandon Lowe | +450 on bet365 |
| Junior Caminero | +500 on bet365 |
Grisham Goes Back-to-Back at Yankee Stadium
Of the three games today, this game at Yankee stadium is the best venue for home runs. While the wind blowing in makes it so the weather is not perfect, the temperature is still in the low to mid 80s which will help somewhat with carry. Overall, this game has a +22% home run index considering the weather and park factors, mostly due to the short right field porch at Yankee Stadium.
Those dimensions will help a left-handed pull hitter such as Grisham, who has been pulling the ball at almost a 70% rate since the All-Star break. While his fly-ball rate is lower than what we would hope in this stretch, his season long fly-ball rate of 43% is a solid number.
Grisham did just hit a home run yesterday, but he is a good look essentially any Yankees home game thanks to his pull-rate and fly-ball abilities, and the matchup against Ryan Pepiot (Rays starting pitcher) is generally a good one for lefties.
Pepiot has allowed a home run every 26 at-bats over the last five weeks, but his barrel rate of 11.50% and fly-ball rate of 57% show a pitcher that can get hit up. Make this pick check out some of the MLB betting boosts on bet365 for this matchup in the Bronx.
Lowe Goes Yard for the Rays
All three plays today are going to be in this Yankees game, since it is the best home run situation of the day. On the Rays side, they will be facing Marcus Stroman, who has not been great all year and really struggles against lefties such as Lowe.
On the year, Stroman has allowed a home run every 16 at-bats to LHH, with a barrel rate just below 10% and 55% HardHit rate. This is all with a low strikeout rate of 14%, which makes the high percentage numbers even worse when considering how often the ball is also in play with Stroman.
Lowe missed the last couple weeks due to injury but made his return to the lineup yesterday and hit well. He had three total HardHits, two of which were above 100 mph exit velocity. Overall, he went 2/4 at the plate with a double, so it looks as though there are no rust concerns with Lowe.
Like Grisham, Lowe does a good job pulling the ball, with a pull-rate just below 50% on the year along with a decent average launch angle of 14.6 degrees.
Caminero Joins with Home Run for TB
For our third and final home run play of the day, we'll back Lowes teammate Junior Caminero to go yard. Despite being a righty and not enjoying the same benefits of the short right field and the pitching advantage with Stroman struggling more against lefties, Caminero is still a worthy play tonight.
He has been hitting well recently, with a combined seven HardHits in his last three games and overall has hit well since the All-Star break with 20 HardHits and five barrels in that stretch.
While Stroman does allow more power to lefties, he is not completely un-hittable to righties either. His sinker specifically can get hit up by RHH, and Caminero has great numbers against the sinker from RHP. On the year, Caminero has a 12%-barrel rate and 59% HardHit rate against this pitch from righties, slashing a .309 average, .279 ISO rate and .976 ISO rate.
If it is not off Stroman, the Yankees bullpen has struggled all year and will also not have most of their top arms available tonight due to recent usage, so Caminero could always go yard later in the game as well.