There are 15 games to dive into for our home run picks on Saturday, meaning all 30 teams are taking the diamond. There are a ton of matchups to analyze, along with a decent number of big-name aces on the mound.
With Zack Wheeler, Tarik Skubal, Paul Skenes, Spencer Strider and Blake Snell on the mound, there is a lot of firepower from a pitching perspective today. As for this article, however, we will be providing the best MLB HR picks for August 2nd.
Best MLB Home Run Picks for Saturday
| Home Run Picks | Odds |
| Brent Rooker | +320 on bet365 |
| Shea Langeliers | +320 on FanDuel |
| William Contreras | +625 on bet365 |
Look at Rooker for Home Run at Sutter Health Park
Luckily, the Athletics do not have to face any of the pitchers mentioned above and also play in one of the best home run venues in the MLB. Zac Gallen is on the mound for the Diamondbacks, who might have a big name, but he has really struggled keeping the ball from leaving the outfield this season.
On the entire year against RHH, Gallen has allowed a home run every 18 at-bats, with a 10%-barrel rate, 46% HardHit rate and 35% fly-ball rate allowed to righties. Despite playing in a pitcher-friendly home stadium, Gallen has still been among the worst pitchers in the MLB in terms of allowing home runs. Now, going against an Athletics team that has some power and in a perfect home run situation for the hitters, it looks as though Gallen could struggle tonight.
Unsurprisingly, this Diamondbacks/Athletics game has the highest home run index of all games today at +30%, which is due to the hot temperatures and double-digit winds blowing out to left field. That wind specifically will help a righty like Rooker, who has been hitting well recently.
Over the last week, Rooker has a respectable 10 HardHits and two barrels, but both a fly-ball rate and pull-rate of roughly 50% will help him with the conditions tonight. Combine all that together, and we have a solid home run play backing Rooker tonight.
Langeliers Also Goes Yard for A’s
Since right-handed bats for the Athletics have such good home run conditions today, it only makes sense to double-up and take another righty for the A’s as our second play of the day. Langeliers joins Rooker also with exactly 10 HardHits and two barrels over the last seven days. While Langeliers does not have as high of a pull rate (36%), he more than makes up for it with a fly-ball rate of almost 60%.
His ability to hit the ball both hard and in the air is why he has four home runs over the last week. Langeliers did hit a home run yesterday, which might scare some people off, but, more importantly, he managed two total HardHits yesterday, both of which were 100+ mph exit velocity off the bat.
The most important thing is that he is consistently swinging a hot bat recently, and in good home run conditions he makes sense as a great home run pick once again today.
Contreras Stays Hot, Homers in Nations Capital
There might not be a batter hotter at the plate than William Contreras, who has hit three home runs in his last two games, but it goes much deeper than that. He leads the MLB with 17 total HardHits over the last seven days, which is an incredibly impressive number, especially considering the fact that the Brewers had an off day on Thursday. So, he is averaging almost three HardHits per game over his last six.
Not only that, but his last two games specifically have been particularly ridiculous, with six HardHits yesterday and another four HardHits on Wednesday (two games ago for the Brewers). Of those 10 combined HardHits in his last two games, seven of them were 100+ mph EV off the bat. Unsurprisingly, he leads the MLB in hits above 100 mph over the last three days.
The weather is neutral in D.C. today, but the pitching matchup is solid against Jake Irvin of the Nationals. Irvin has allowed a home run every 21 at-bats on the year, with a low strikeout rate combined with a high barrel and HardHit rate. He is admittedly worse against lefties than he is against a righty such as Contreras, but it is not as though he is un-hittable from the right side either.
He still has a low strikeout rate of only 17%, with a slightly below-average 8%-barrel rate and 43% HardHit rate to RHH specifically. With how hot Contreras is and at the very solid price of +625 odds, he is absolutely worth a home run sprinkle today.