After a huge MLB slate on Wednesday with three doubleheaders, there is a smaller slate on Thursday, with 10 MLB games to dive into for our home run picks. We consider the weather, pitchers and other factors when deciding who to clear the fence.
Below, we explain our favorite MLB home run picks for today, July 3rd.
Best Home Run Picks & Odds for Thursday
Use MLB betting bonuses on FanDuel and bet365 to make these home run picks. Win a $150 bonus on FanDuel and another $150 bonus on bet365.
Greene Launches Homer for the Tigers
The Tigers played two games yesterday as they had a double-header, and Greene was electric at the plate. In the first game he hit two home runs and had three HardHits total. Then, he was not in the starting lineup in game 2 for rest purposes, but he came in and pinch-hit, and sent a baseball 388 feet that would have been a home run if it was pulled. So, Greene is swinging a hot bat, and he has a great matchup to homer once again today.
Jake Irvin is pitching for the Nationals, and Irvin really struggles at keeping baseballs in the park, and even more against lefties. On the year, he has allowed a home run every 19.73 at-bats against LHH, which increases to every 17 at-bats in his last five starts. In this five start stretch, he has allowed an ISO rate of .294, barrel rate of 13.24%, HardHit rate of 63.16% and a combined fly-ball + line-drive rate of 63.15%, all with a low strikeout rate below 15%.
This is also one of the good weather situations today at Nationals Park with temps in the low 90s to high 80s and low barometric pressure, look for Greene to smack another one deep today.
Adell Amongst Favorite Home Run Picks
Adell has been a favorite of ours over the past couple days, and while he has not hit a home run the last two nights, he has still hit the ball hard and, once again, has an excellent situation to homer tonight.
Despite not hitting a home run yesterday, he had three HardHits total, including two that were 100+ mph exit velocity. One of them traveled 393 feet, which is close to home run territory. This is another good weather venue, with similar hot temperatures in Atlanta with moderately high winds blowing out.
The biggest thing, however, is Bryce Elder on the mound for the Braves, who has been a bad (or good for us) home run pitcher all year. On the year, he has allowed a home run every 17 at-bats against RHH, which has increased to every 15 at-bats over his last five weeks. Adell rights the wrongs from the previous two days with a home run tonight.
Adames Goes Yard in Arizona
As always, the last play is saved for the best odds as well, this time backing Adames. While Adames might not be as hot at the plate as the previous two batters mentioned, he has still been hitting well recently. He has a respectable 15 HardHits and four barrels over the last two weeks, with eight HardHits and three barrels over the last week. Not among the best in the MLB, but acceptable for our purposes.
Similar to the other two batters, however, is that Adames has a good matchup against the Diamondbacks starting pitcher, with Brandon Pfaadt on the mound. On the year, Pfaadt has allowed a home run every 21.63 at-bats, which is close enough to our desired number of every 20 at-bats.
While Pfaadt has not allowed as many home runs in the last five weeks (every 26.25 at-bats), his barrel rate allowed is actually worse in this stretch compared to the entire season. So, the expectation is that Pfaadt gets hit up tonight, hopefully with one home run coming from Adames.