It's Wednesday, which means that the MLB slate is filled with day games to consider for our home run picks. The earliest games both start at 2:10 p.m. ET, between the Blue Jays/White Sox and Dodgers/Brewers.
With the heat of July, there are great home run situations. With that thought in mind, read below for our best MLB HR prop bets today, July 9th.
Best MLB Home Run Picks for Wednesday
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| Home Run Pick | Odds |
| Nick Kurtz | +340 on FanDuel |
| Jazz Chisholm Jr. | +375 on bet365 |
| Addison Barger | +400 on FanDuel |
Kurtz Hits Another One Tonight
Yes, Kurtz did just go yard last night, but that is nothing to fear as we have seen the young slugger go on multiple home run binges this year. He went back-to-back on May 20th and 21st (actually hit two HRs on 5/21) and had a stretch in there where he hit four home runs in four games from 5/20-5/23. Then, in June, Kurtz went back-to-back multiple times on 6/15 and 6/16 and hit one in three straight games from 6/18-6/20.
Not only did Kurtz hit the home run last night that was 108.5 mph EV off the bat and traveled 403 feet, but he had another double that was 102.7 exit velocity.
As for tonight, Kurtz has about as good of a pitching matchup one could hope for against Bryce Elder of the Braves, who has been a home run machine this year. Over his last five starts, Elder has allowed a home run every 12 at-bats against LHH, with a horrific 11.11%-barrel rate against lefties in that stretch as well. This is also among the best home run venues of the day looking at the Athletics home stadium and the weather, so trust Kurtz to hit another home run tonight.
Rely on Jazz at Yankee Stadium
Chisholm Jr was one of our home run picks yesterday that did not come through, but he has another great matchup tonight and it was not for lack of trying on his part. He hit a flyout that traveled 393 feet and was 105.6 off the bat, and that was not even his hardest hit of the day, as he had a double that was 106.1 mph exit velocity. For context, in this same exact game Cal Raleigh hit a home run that also traveled 393 feet, it was just bad luck that Chisholm Jr. hit his to dead center.
What that does mean, however, is that Chisholm Jr. continued to destroy the baseball, which has been the case for two weeks now. He leads the MLB with 11 total barrels over the last two weeks, and no other batter even has double-digit barrels in this same stretch.
The Mariners starting pitcher Logan Evans has allowed a home run every 24.71 at-bats and has admittedly allowed more home runs to RHH than LHH, but nothing about his advanced numbers against LHH shows a pitcher that should be avoided. So, we are trusting that Chisholm Jr rights the wrongs from yesterday and hits a homer tonight.
Barger Goes Yard in Chicago
Barger came through for us on Monday, so here's hoping that we can have similar success tonight backing him once again. Barger has been red hot recently, leading the MLB in total HardHits in the last seven days with 15. That is an impressive number over a seven-day span, and only one batter is close to him with 14 HardHits in this same stretch. He has three barrels and a fly-ball rate of 47.6% in these seven days, which are all healthy numbers.
In general, the White Sox home stadium is a home run friendly venue with small outfields, and for today specifically the weather is positive for home runs. There are double-digit winds blowing out to right field, which will help a left-handed hitter such as Barger.
Barger will be facing Adrian Houser as the White Sox starting pitcher, who has allowed a home run every 25 at-bats to lefties over the last five weeks. Not quite at the under 20 at-bat number that we typically look for, but nothing to scare us off Barger either.