Now that we got the travel day behind us, there is a full MLB slate on Tuesday to consider for our home run picks. There is great hitting weather in a lot of locations as well, so hopefully that means Dinger Tuesday is profitable across the board.
We did manage to get one home run prediction to come through yesterday thanks to Addison Barger, so let's look to stay hot today. Below, check out our best MLB home run picks for Tuesday, July 8th.
Best MLB Home Run Picks for Tuesday
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| Home Run Pick | Odds |
| Jazz Chisholm Jr. | +350 on FanDuel |
| Eugenio Suarez | +350 on bet365 |
| Colton Cowser | +450 on bet365 |
Chisholm Jr Homers at Yankee Stadium
There is a chance that rain is an issue in this game in the form of either a rain delay or postponement, but, if the game ends up being played it is one of the best weather + stadium situations for a home run on the slate today. For context, this game has the highest home run index of all the MLB games today, which takes into account both the weather and the stadium.
The temperature is in the low 90s to high 80s, with double-digit winds blowing out to right field. The Yankees stadium is known for its short right field porch already, and with Chisholm Jr being a lefty, he does not even need to make that hard contact to hit a home run at his home stadium thanks to the weather. Thankfully for us, Chisholm Jr is on fire at the plate.
He leads the entire MLB with 11 total barrels over the last 14 days and has hit five home runs in this stretch. Mariners starter Logan Gilbert is a good pitcher overall, but he can get hit hard by lefties, allowing a home run every 18.20 at-bats against LHH. The biggest issue for Gilbert is his slider, and Chisholm Jr has an absurd 37.50%-barrel rate, 57% HardHit rate and 57% fly-ball rate against sliders from RHP over the last month.
Trust Suarez to Go Yard Tonight
Suarez has been among the best home run hitters in baseball this year, with 28 home runs on the season, which is the fourth-most in the MLB. While he is not as hot at the plate currently as Chisholm Jr is as detailed earlier, he has a respectable nine HardHits over the last seven days. Not incredible form, of course, but acceptable for our purposes.
The reason Suarez is a play tonight is due to the pitching matchup against Nick Pivetta. Pivetta is a right-handed pitcher who struggles significantly more when facing right-handed hitters. He has allowed nine home runs to RHH on the year, to only three against LHH. All of his advanced metrics across the board are significantly worse against RHH as well, so it is not just bad luck in the home run department.
The pitch that gets hit hard for Pivetta is his 4-seam fastball, which he throws just under 50% of the time to RHH. Righties have a 63% HardHit rate and .273 ISO rate against that 4-seamer, and Suarez has fantastic numbers against this pitch with a 21% barrel rate, 72.5% HardHit rate and 43% fly-ball rate. He goes yard tonight.
Colton Cowser Cranks a Home Run in Baltimore
This game in Baltimore is similar to the Yankees game in that there is a potential rain issue, but a great home run situation if the game is played. Not quite as good as Yankees stadium (which had a 40% home run index), but this Mets/Orioles game should see home runs flying with a 22.4% home run index. Of all the possibilities, Cowser is a great bet to send one deep.
The Orioles had the day off Monday and Cowser did not have a great day at the plate on Sunday but was consistently hitting the ball hard prior to that. He had three HardHits and a barrel on Saturday and overall had three barrels and 12 HardHits in the six games from 6/28 to 7/5. This is another batter vs. pitcher matchup that heavily favors the batter, with Clay Holmes pitching for the Mets.
Holmes had a good start to the year, but has really struggled against lefties recently, allowing a home run every 10.75 at-bats against LHH over the last five weeks. All four home runs he has allowed in this stretch have been hit off his sinker and slider, to which Cowser has a 16.67%-barrel rate, 62% HardHit rate and 62% fly-ball rate against that pitch-mix over the last two months from RHP. Trust him to clear a fence tonight.