After the Fourth of July, all 30 teams are once again back in action on Saturday. There is a bunch to dive into for today’s home run picks. We look into a ton of factors when selecting home run props, including the weather, the stadium venue, pitching matchups in more. So, with that said, please read below for our best MLB home run predictions today.
Best MLB Home Run Picks for Saturday
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Suzuki Goes Yard in Windy Wrigley
The home run situation at Wrigley Field today is about as good as one could possibly ask for. There are around 15 mph winds blowing out towards the outfield, and no stadium in the MLB is more impacted by wind than Wrigley Field. On top of that, it is in the 90s in Chicago today. For context, WeatherEdge has this game as a +112.9% home run index solely based on the weather.
So, balls should fly in Wrigley today, and the favorite of the bunch to clear a fence is Suzuki. Granted, the odds reflect that, but for good reason. Suzuki has been on fire in general, so he might not even need help from the weather to go yard.
He leads the Cubs with 12 HardHits over the last seven days, with 22 over his last 14. Both of those are very impressive and among the tops in the MLB over these timeframes. Rely on Suzuki in Wrigley today, even with the odds.
Trust Wood in Nations Capital
James Wood did not have a great day at the plate yesterday, but that can be forgiven as he was red hot prior to that and on Thursday specifically. In that Thursday game, he had three total HardHits, two of which were above 100+ mph exit velocity, with the third one close enough at 99.7 mph EV. Oh, and he also went yard in that game as well.
So, one day at the plate with no HardHits should not make wood a complete stay-away, especially in a great situation to hit a home run tonight. Walker Buehler is pitching for the Red Sox, who has been among the worst home run pitchers in baseball all year, and especially recently.
On the year, he has allowed a home run every 17.53 at-bats, and over the last five weeks that number has gone all the way down to every 12.56 at-bats. Wood has been fantastic this entire season and has been hitting well recently, so in a good situation today let's count on him to hit a home run.
Castellanos Hits Another One in Philly
Castellanos hit a home run yesterday, and he is a great bet to do so once again tonight. While not quite as good as the weather at Wrigley, the Phillies home game today is another great weather situation for home runs, along with the Phillies already having a hitter-friendly park.
At Citizens Bank Park today, the temperature is in the mid to high 80s, with up to 10mph winds blowing out. The Bank is not quite as impacted as Wrigley with the wind, but the stadium in general is still very receptive to wind.
Nick Lodolo is pitching for the Reds, who has really struggled against RHH recently. Over the last five weeks, he has allowed a home run to righties every 13.38 at-bats, with a barrel rate of 10.28% and a HardHit rate of 53.16%. 'Casty takes him hard today.