There is a full MLB slate on Saturday as all 30 teams are taking the diamond, giving us plenty of options for our home run picks. Weekend baseball means games start relatively early, with the first game scheduled for first pitch at 1:05 p.m. ET between the Cubs and Yankees.
Below, we analyze several matchups and list the odds for our favorite MLB home run bets of the day.
Best MLB Home Run Picks for Saturday
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| Home Run Pick | Odds |
| Mike Trout | +285 on FanDuel |
| Jose Ramirez | +310 on FanDuel |
| Nick Kurtz | +350 on bet365 |
Trout Goes Fishing for Home Run
The odds reflect this, but Trout is among the best home run plays on the board when taking everything into account. This Angels game against the Diamondbacks has a home run index of +14% due to the weather and park factors at Angels Stadium, which is a good start.
From there, the Diamondbacks starting pitcher Zac Gallen has been among the worst home run pitchers all year, and especially recently. On the year, Gallen has allowed a home run every 21.15 at-bats and every 19.27 at-bats against RHH.
Over his last five weeks, however, those numbers increase to 15.78 at-bats and every 14.60 at-bats against RHH. His barrel rate of 13.70%, HardHit rate of 56.36% and fly-ball rate of 40% are horrible numbers across the board as well.
As far as Mike Trout goes, he is better against RHP than LHP, with a .257 ISO rate against righties and .106 against LHP, which is good news as Gallen is a righty. Trout is also hitting the ball well with 10 HardHits and three barrels over the last seven days, so let's hope he crushes one deep tonight.
Ramirez Stays Hot, Homers in Chicago
It has been a tough year overall for Ramirez, but he has shown some signs of life recently with four home runs over the last seven days and has 16 HardHits over the last 14. This game at the White Sox home stadium is another fantastic home run venue, with +28% home run index at Rate Field.
Already a hitter-friendly stadium, today features slightly hot weather, slight winds blowing out to left field, and low barometric pressure. All three of those factors help with carry of the baseball, making this a good game to dive into for home runs.
Sean Burke is pitching for the White Sox, who is not a bad pitcher overall but does struggle with the long ball. Over his last five starts, he has allowed a home run every 12 at-bats against LHH, with an 8.33%-barrel rate and 51.61% HardHit rate. With Ramirez being a switch-hitter, he will be batting left-handed against Burke.
The Guardians bats went cold during a tough losing streak, but they have been better recently, which coincides with J-Ram hitting better recently as well. Let's hope that continues tonight with a home run.
Kurtz Goes Yard for Third Straight Game
Kurtz enjoys the benefits of playing at one of the best home run venues in the MLB this year at Sutter Health Park, and he has taken advantage of that by hitting a ton of home runs at his home stadium. On the year, he has an ISO rate of .400 at home, to only .170 away. 12 of his 16 home runs have been hit at home, which makes sense considering the home run conditions.
He crushes 4-seam fastballs from right-handed pitchers, which is the reason he is a play tonight. Over the last month, Kurtz has an absurd 18%-barrel rate, 85% HardHit rate and 42% fly-ball rate against 4-seamers from RHP, which he is going to see over 55% of the time from Blue Jays starter Kevin Gausman.
Gausman is a good pitcher overall, but he can struggle against lefties, especially his 4-seamer. He has allowed a home run every 23 at-bats to LHH over the last five weeks (3 home runs total), and all three have been hit off his 4-seamer.
On the year, seven of the eight home runs he has allowed to lefties have been hit off the 4-seam fastball. That is close to a death sentence going up against Kurtz, who hopefully continues this home run tear with one tonight.