MLB returns with a lighter schedule on Thursday due to the travel day for some teams. There is a double-header between the Mets and Orioles which helps and gives us 11 MLB games to consider for our home run picks today. This will be the case for most of the summer, but there are excellent home run conditions across the league due to the hot weather.
Below, we go over our favorite MLB HR bets for July 10th. We analyze several matchups and list the odds.
Best MLB Home Run Picks for Thursday
Check out the MLB betting bonuses on DraftKings and FanDuel to make these home run picks. Users can win a $150 on both FanDuel and DraftKings by taking advantage.
| Home Run Pick | Odds |
| Corey Seager | +270 on DraftKings |
| Agustin Ramirez | +500 on DraftKings |
| Randy Arozarena | +520 on FanDuel |
Seager Mashes one in City of Angels
Seager has been on an absolute roll at the plate recently and is among the best looks to hit a home run today. The odds reflect that with a shorter price, but for good reason.
For starters, Seager leads the MLB in total HardHits over the 14 days with 26. One other batter has 25, and the rest is below him by multiple hits. On top of that, he is one of three batters with 10 or more barrels in this two week stretch.
While he did not go yard yesterday, he had three hits above 100 mph exit velocity, one of which was a double that traveled 385 feet and would have been a home run in 27/30 stadiums. Brutal beat for anybody that had Seager to him one yesterday, but a good sign for him moving forward.
This is one of the positive weather games referenced earlier, with this game in LA having a +18% home run index when looking at both the stadium and the weather.
Lastly, the Angels’ starting pitcher is a home run target for left-handed hitters such as Seager. On the year, Jack Kochanowicz has allowed a home run every 15 at-bats, which has stayed the same over his last five starts as well. Seager sends one to space tonight.
Ramirez Sends One Deep in Cincinnati
As is typically the case, the game in Cincinnati is the best home run venue of the day today, with a +37% home run index considering the stadium and weather in Cincinnati. Normally, you must pay a premium when locking in a home run at Great American BP, but that is not the case with this prop on Agustin Ramirez, which we are getting at a nice +500 price.
Ramirez, meanwhile, is one of nine batters with eight or more barrels over the last two weeks, and one of 14 batters with 22 or more HardHits in that same stretch. He has 12 HardHits and three barrels over the last week, which are also healthy numbers. So, there are no concerns with whether he is swinging a hot bat or not.
There are also no concerns with the pitching matchup against Nick Lodolo, the Reds starter today. Over the last five weeks, Lodolo has allowed a home run every 10.80 at-bats against RHH. Lodolo is also a lefty, and Ramirez has a phenomenal 17.14%-barrel rate against LHP over the last month. So, taking everything into account, there is no reason this price should be as high as it is, so hopefully Ramirez rewards the value with a home run tonight.
Back the Red Hot Arozarena Tonight
This is another batter prop where the odds seemingly do not match the situation, getting one of the hottest batters in baseball to hit a home run at +520 odds in a good weather + pitching situation. Arozarena has hit seven home runs over the last two weeks, which leads the MLB.
There are a couple batters with six home runs in this stretch, but none with seven or more. He also has 22 HardHits in this timeframe, matching Ramirez as one of 14 batters with 22 or more in the last two weeks.
With the hot weather on the East Coast and slight winds blowing out to left field, this is another solid home run game with a +28% home run index overall. Yankee Stadium is relatively receptive to wind, so those winds blowing out to left should help the right-handed Arozarena.
As far as the pitching matchup goes, Marcus Stroman has only made two starts since coming back from a lengthy injury absence but has not pitched well. He has allowed one home run in 16 at-bats against righties, with a barrel rate of 12.50%. He throws the Sinker 60% of the time, which not only gets hit hard in general, but Arozarena has fantastic numbers against sinkers from righties.