There are still some potential weather issues for the MLB schedule on Wednesday, but it should be nothing like we saw yesterday. It also means there are 18 games to consider for our home run picks.
We consider weather, pitching and other factors. Below, we go over our best MLB home run picks today, July 2nd.
Best Home Run Picks for Wednesday
Try using MLB betting bonuses on FanDuel, DraftKings and bet365 to make these home run picks:
- Jonathan Aranda (+390) at bet365
- Kyle Tucker (+400) at FanDuel
- Gavin Sheets in Game 1 (+500) at DraftKings
Aranda Hits a Homer in Tampa
The Rays home stadium for this season is among the best home run venues in the MLB, especially for left-handed hitters. Steinbrenner Field is modeled after Yankees Stadium with a short right field porch, but because it is a AAA park it is heavily impacted by wind.
As for today, the temperature is in the 80s with 12-16 mph winds blowing out of the stadium. So, all in all, this is the best home situation of the day when considering the weather + park factors.
As for Aranda, he has been red hot at the plate. He is one of only three batters with 15 or more HardHits over the last seven days and is one of four batters with 25 or more HardHits in the last 14. He has also been doing a great job putting the ball in the air, with a fly-ball rate of 42.5% and pull rate of 40% in this two week stretch. That pull rate is important considering the small right outfield, as detailed earlier.
Mitch Spence is pitching for the Athletics, who is not among the worst home run starting pitchers in the MLB, but nobody to be scared off either. He has allowed a home run every 22 at-bats to lefties on the year, which is not quite the under 20 at-bats that we typically look for, but still below-average.
The two biggest issues for Spence are his cutter and slider, which Aranda has fantastic numbers against over the last month with a 16.67%-barrel rate, 55% HardHit rate and 30% fly-ball rate.
Rely on Tucker to Go Yard in the Windy City
Kyle Tucker is having a good year with the Cubs, but he is a great bet to hit a home run given the situation tonight. Wrigley Field is the stadium most impacted by wind in the entire MLB, so it has a wide variance on whether home games for the Cubs are positive or negative weather situations.
It is mostly a good weather game, with slight winds blowing out to right field, and the temperature in the low 80s. There have been better games at Wrigley, of course, but today is generally a good home run situation.
As for Tucker himself, he has been hitting decently well recently but has a fantastic matchup against the Guardians starting pitcher Tanner Bibee.
Bibee is a fine pitcher overall, but he struggles against left-handed hitters and really struggles pitching away from Cleveland. His HR/9 against LHH is 1.83 (up from 1.07 against RHH), with the most dramatic difference being his HR/9 away at 2.05 compared to 0.64 at home.
Tucker has a respectable 18 HardHits and five barrels over the last 14 days and leads the Cubs with 10 HardHits in the last week. Try including several home run picks in a same-game parlay on FanDuel and use a 30% profit boost.
Trust Sheets in Game 1 of Doubleheader in Philly
Since the Padres and Phillies game got rained out yesterday, they are playing a doubleheader today. This play on Sheets, to be clear, is for the first game of that doubleheader, with Sheets having a huge advantage over Phillies starting pitcher Mick Abel.
Abel was a fun story when he pitched well in his first two starts, but over the last five weeks he has allowed a home run every 9.86 at-bats, which is already a horrible number that gets even worse against lefties.
In this five week stretch, he has allowed a home run every 6.83 ABs against LHH, while allowing a barrel rate of 14.63%, HardHit rate of 54.29% and a combined line-drive + fly-ball rate of 74%. Those are truly horrific numbers across the board, so the Padres should be able to have some success against him.
The Padres bats have been relatively cold as a team recently, but Sheets has shown some pop with 18 HardHits in the last 14 days, and two HardHits in each of his last three games as well.
He has not been barreling the ball up as much recently as he had been back in May, but Mick Abel seems like the perfect remedy for that. Home runs should be flying in Philly today, hopefully with one being from Sheets.