It's Dinger Tuesday, which means all 30 MLB teams are taking the mound today. It’s a great schedule for our MLB home run picks.
We managed to get one yesterday thanks to Jazz Chisholm Jr, who stayed red hot at the plate. Below, we look at the odds for our best MLB home run predictions today, July 1st.
Best Home Run Picks for Wednesday
Try using MLB betting bonuses on bet365 to make these home run picks:
Trust Adell to Hit a Homer Tonight
Adell has been a favorite of ours over the last week or so, but for good reason. He has 19 HardHits and seven barrels in the last 14 days and has continued to stay hot with 10 HardHits and four barrels over the last week. His ground-ball rate is admittedly up over the last week, which is why he has "only" hit two home runs (two home runs in a week is still good), but he has still been consistently barreling the ball up.
The pitching matchup for Adell tonight is somewhat of an unknown, with Braves prospect Didier Fuentes on the mound against the Angels. Fuentes is a highly rated prospect for Atlanta who has made two starts in his major league career. Unfortunately for Fuentes, he has gotten pummeled in those two starts. He has decent stuff overall, but it has not yet translated against major league batters.
In these two starts, he has pitched eight total innings allowing three home runs (allowing a HR every 12.33 at-bats), with a 10.81%-barrel rate, 52.94% HardHit rate and an absurd 70% combined fly-ball + line-drive rate. He throws a 4-seam fastball 60% of the time, and Adell has phenomenal numbers against the 4-seamer from RHP both on the year and during this recent hot streak.
Marte Goes Yard in Arizona
Similar to Adell, Marte is another batter that is smoking the baseball recently. Marte is one of six batters with nine or more barrels over the last 14 days, adding 19 HardHits in that stretch as well. He did not have any HardHits yesterday, but we can forgive him for that considering he had gone yard in back-to-back games heading into yesterday.
The Diamondbacks are facing the Giants, with Hayden Birdsong on the mound for San Francisco. Birdsong has slightly below-average home run numbers overall but really struggles specifically against left-handed hitters. Marte is a switch-hitter, so he will be batting lefty against the right-handed Birdsong.
On the year, Birdsong has allowed a home run every 21 at-bats against LHH, which has gone up to every 14.33 at-bats over his last five starts. Similar to Fuentes, Birdsong loves to throw the 4-seam FB over 50% of the time, and Marte also has fantastic numbers against the 4-seamer from RHP.
James Lays the Wood, Hits Dinger in Nations Capital
Wood has been a revelation for the Nationals this year, as the 22-year-old was called up for the first time last year but has really taken a step this year. While he is not quite as hot at the plate as the previous two batters mentioned, he is not ice cold and has been great for the majority of the season. He has hit 22 home runs, which is tied with one other batter for the sixth-most in the entire MLB, with the 10th-best ISO rate, 8th-best barrel rate and fourth-best HardHit rate.
He has been walked a ton recently so his total HardHit numbers over the last week are not impressive, but he does have seven barrels over the last two weeks, which is great.
This will sound familiar, but Wood is facing a pitcher that loves to throw the 4-seam fastball, which he crushes. Jack Flaherty is pitching for the Tigers, who has allowed nine home runs to LHH on the year, allowing a home run ever 15.78 at-bats. Six of those nine home runs have been hit off his 4-seamer, which he throws roughly 42% of the time.
On the year, Wood has a barrel rate of 22.22% and a HardHit rate of 70.73% against the 4-seam fastball against righties. He goes yard tonight.