It’s Dinger Tuesday, with temperatures in the 90s in a lot of ballparks today. We explain our three favorite home run picks, which you can make using bonuses on FanDuel, Fanatics and bet365.
Below, we look at games in Chicago, Sacramento and Milwaukee. Make these home run bets individually or try creating a parlay to increase your potential winnings.
Best MLB Home Run Picks for Tuesday
| Home Run Pick | Odds |
| Bryce Harper | +320 on FanDuel |
| Randy Arozarena | +410 on Fanatics |
| Christian Yelich | +475 on bet365 |
Harper Hits Homer in Chicago
Of the games referenced earlier that is going to have positive weather conditions for home runs, this one at the White Sox home stadium is on that list with a +29% home run index considering the stadium factors and weather. While Harper did not go yard yesterday, he had a decent day at the plate with two HardHits total, both of which were smoked.
He had the hardest hit of the game, a single that was 112.1 mph exit velocity, and another double that was 107.6 mph EV. None of them had the launch angle needed to be a real home run threat, but it was nice to see Harper continue to crush the baseball.
He has been on fire for a couple weeks now, with a barrel rate of 25% and HardHit rate of 59.1% since July 9th. He has played 14 games in that stretch, hitting .333, with a .825 slugging, 1.231 OPS and .491 ISO rate.
He has been ripping the cover off the ball and has a solid matchup against the White Sox starting pitcher Jonathan Cannon, who has allowed a home run every 24.86 at-bats to LHH on the year. Take Harper to go long with special MLB betting bonuses on FanDuel, which are released every Tuesday for home run wagers.
Trust Arozarena for Home Run Today
While Arozarena did not come through with a home run for us yesterday, it was not as though he had a horrible day at the plate. He had three HardHits total, two of which left the bat at 100+ mph EV. Like Harper above, none of those HardHits had the necessary launch angle to clear a fence, but with how good Arozarena has been at hitting home runs over the last month or so that is not a huge concern overall. The most important part is that he continued to hit the ball hard.
This game at Sutter Health Park remains one of the best home run venues in the MLB, which is still the case today despite only one home run being hit yesterday. The temperature will be in the 90s when the game starts, with double-digit winds blowing out to left field.
Luis Severino is the starting pitcher for the Athletics, who has really struggled with the long ball recently, and especially at home. Over the last five weeks, he has allowed a home run every 15 at-bats to right-handed hitters, allowing a HardHit rate of 60% in that stretch as well. Arozarena makes it up with a home run tonight.
Yelich Goes Back-to-Back, Sends One Deep in Milwaukee
Yelich went yard last night, but he has a great opportunity to do so once again tonight so he is worthy of taking to hit one two nights in a row. He had the home run that was 105.1 mph off the bat and had another two HardHits as well. One was a double that was 103.3 mph EV, and another 109.2 mph exit velocity.
That continues a nice run Yelich is on at the plate after a rough stretch of games, with a combined two barrels and seven HardHits over his last three games. Unsurprisingly, this is another fantastic weather spot for home runs at the Brewers home stadium, with a +36% home run index thanks to the weather and park factors.
Yelich also has the benefit of going up against one of the worst pitchers in the MLB when facing left-handed hitters in Colin Rea. On the year, Rea has allowed a home run every 15.62 at-bats to lefties, and that number is even worse over the last five weeks, jumping up to 12.50 at-bats.
The two pitches that get hit the hardest by LHH for Rea are the 4-seam fastball and splitter, and Yelich has good numbers against both those pitches with a .212 ISO rate against 4-seam FBs and .273 against the splitter. He is going yard tonight.