Today features one of the lighter MLB slates you will see over the course of the season, with only four MLB games on the Thursday schedule. These are the four games for our home run picks:
- Athletics vs. Nationals, 12:05 pm ET
- White Sox vs. Mariners, 4:10 pm ET
- Reds vs. Pirates, 6:40 pm ET
- Marlins vs. Braves, 7:15 pm ET
Below, we explain the best HR prop bets for Thursday. We consider pitching matchups, weather conditions and other factors.
MLB Home Run Picks for Thursday
| Home Run Pick | Odds |
| Cal Raleigh | +290 on Fanatics |
| Agustin Ramirez | +450 on bet365 |
| Josh Naylor | +575 on bet365 |
Raleigh Adds to Home Run League Lead
Raleigh is currently the MLB league leader in total home runs with 42, with Kyle Schwarber not far behind him with 40. Raleigh has been in a mini slump in the home run department recently, at least for his standards with "only" one home run hit over the last seven days. That said, he has still been hitting the ball well in that stretch and he had a fantastic day at the plate yesterday, so the guess here is that he is going to go on a home run barrage soon.
Over this seven-day stretch, Raleigh leads the Mariners in total HardHits with 10. His average exit velocity is a fantastic 101.1 mph EV, with a solid average launch angle of 17.4 degrees as well. So, there is nothing in his recent form to suggest that he is cold at the plate or anything like that. Yesterday alone he had three separate hits that were 100+ mph exit velocity with no home runs to show for it.
Luckily for Raleigh, he should have the advantage over the White Sox starting pitcher Shane Smith, who has allowed a home run every 5.75 at-bats over the last five weeks to LHH, which is an absurdly high number.
He does rack up a lot of strikeouts, but lefties have a barrel rate of 13%, HardHit rate of 67%, and a combined line-drive + fly-ball rate of just under 80%. Those numbers are horrific across the board, so look for Raleigh to go yard today.
Ramirez Crushes One in Atlanta
The Braves’ pitching rotation has been ravaged by injuries this year, which has led them to sign veteran pitchers that were released by their previous teams. One of those pitchers is Carlos Carrasco, who is the Braves starting pitcher for tonight. Unfortunately for the Braves, Carrasco has been crushed by right-handed hitters in his limited action this year.
On the year, Carrasco has allowed a home run every 13 at-bats to righties, with bad number across the board. Most notably is the 9%-barrel rate and 51% HardHit rate allowed to RHH, combined with the relatively low strikeout rate of 21%.
Ramirez, on the other hand, has been hitting well recently with nine HardHits and three barrels over the last week, and 21 HardHits and six barrels over the last 14 days. Carrasco has a wide pitch-mix to righties, but the two pitches that get hit the hardest are the slider and 4-seam fastball, two pitches that Ramirez hits well. Before making home run picks on bet365, browse through a variety of MLB betting boosts.
Naylor Joins Raleigh, Homers for Mariners
With lefties having such a good matchup for the Mariners today, it only makes sense to double-up. Naylor joined the Mariners recently and has been hitting well for them. He has gone yard in back-to-back games, which might scare some people off, but the most important thing is that he is hitting well and has a fantastic matchup.
Naylor has decent numbers as a member of the Mariners, which has been 14 games to this point, but his recent form has been good with three barrels and seven HardHits over his last four games.
The home run he hit traveled an absurd 450 feet, so here is hoping he can do something similar in this game.