After a full weekend of baseball behind us, the Monday betting slate is a slightly lighter one than normal, with some teams off due to travel. We consider the pitching matchups, weather and other factors for our MLB home run picks.
All in all, there are 13 games today, with a lot of fun matchups to dive into. Below, we explain our favorite home run picks for Monday. There are MLB betting bonuses available for these HR picks on FanDuel and bet365.
Best MLB Home Run Picks for Monday
| Home Run Picks | Odds |
| Ramon Laureano | +375 on bet365 |
| Kerry Carpenter | +420 on FanDuel |
| Michael Harris II | +550 on bet365 |
Laureano Goes Back-to-Back
Ramon Laureano had a fantastic run up to the trade deadline, which lead to him being traded from the Orioles to the Padres. He has been with the Padres since 8/1, and has generally been pretty good for them, especially recently. He did hit a home run yesterday, but overall, he has a barrel in five straight games, tied with six other batters with the league-lead in total barrels over the last week.
He has also crushed left-handed pitching, which he will be facing tonight in the Giants starter Robbie Ray. On the season, Laureano has a respectable .241 ISO rate against LHP, but over the last 30 days that number has jumped all the way up to .471, with a fantastic 27.6%-barrel rate and 65.5% HardHit rate.
Looking at Ray, he has allowed a home run every 23 at-bats over the last six weeks and struggles more on the road than at home. Since 7/1, he has a HR/9 of 2.00 against right-handed hitters pitching away, which makes sense as Rays home stadium at Oracle Park is one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in the MLB. Laureano hits another one tonight.
Trust Carpenter at Comerica Park
Speaking of home/road splits, Carpenter is a batter that hits for significantly more power in the comforts of his home stadium than away. On the year, he has hit more home runs at home than he has away despite having more ABs away, with an ISO rate of .338 at home vs. .208 away. It is a dramatic difference, which does make some sense when you look into it.
Carpenter does a fantastic job of both hitting the ball in the air and pulling it, with the 15th-best pull/air rate in the MLB at 28.2%. Number one in this category is Cal Raleigh, which makes sense considering he leads the MLB in home runs. The reason this is important for Carpenter is the home stadium he plays at has a very deep center field, but relatively shorter right field. So, he has a much easier time clearing a fence on anything hit to right field, which he does a great job of doing.
As for the pitching matchup, Spencer Arrighetti is the Astros starting pitcher, who has only made four starts this year due to injury and has struggled. Carpenter crushes one to right field tonight.
Michael Harris Goes Yard for Braves
Harris II leads MLB in total HardHits over the last 14 days with 26, and by a decent margin too. The next closest hitter has 22, with six batters tied for second at that amount, but none higher than 22. Harris II also has a respectable five barrels in this stretch as well.
Thanks to the hot temperatures and double-digit winds blowing out, this is also a fantastic home run spot today, with a +22% home run index.
The White Sox pitcher is somewhat of an unknown, with Yoendrys Gomez on the mound. Gomez has spent time with three teams this year, mostly coming out of the bullpen. He did have a good first start with the White Sox, but overall, he has allowed a home run every 22 at-bats to left-handed hitters with below-average stats across the board.
Lefties have a 13%-barrel rate, 43% HardHit rate, and 66% line-drive + fly-ball rate against Gomez on the year.