The weekend is upon us with another full MLB slate this Saturday, with 15 games to dive into for our home run picks. There’s a lot of hot weather across the country, so there are a lot of positive hitting situations as well.
Below, we explain our three favorite home run prop bets for Saturday. There are MLB betting bonuses available for these HR picks on FanDuel and bet365.
Best MLB Home Run Picks for Saturday
| Home Run Pick | Odds |
| Riley Greene | +390 on bet365 |
| Vinnie Pasquantino | +450 on FanDuel |
| Nick Castellanos | +600 on bet365 |
Greene Goes Long in Minnesota
Greene has been in fantastic hitting form recently, and despite not going yard yesterday still managed to have a decent day at the plate. He "only" had one HardHit, but that HardHit was barreled up with exit velocity of 102.4 mph and a 35 degree launch angle. That is generally the type of swing you look for to clear a fence, but it just did not work out last night.
That did, however, continue an excellent run that Greene is on barreling the ball up. He has seven barrels over the last week, which leads the entire MLB. Two other batters have six barrels in this stretch, with everybody else at five and below.
He will be facing Zebby Matthews as the Twins starter, who can get hit up by lefties. Over the last six weeks, Matthews has allowed a home run every 18 at-bats to LHH. Greene hits one tonight.
Pasquantino Homers for Kansas City
Generally, the Royals home stadium is a place to avoid for home runs due to their large outfields. That said, the weather is fantastic in Kansas City today that this is a good situation for home runs to be hit. Due to the 95-degree temperatures and double-digit winds blowing out slightly to left field, this game has a +13.8% home run index strictly from a weather perspective.
Pasquantino, aka "Pasquatch", has been in excellent hitting form recently. He is one of 13 batters with 12 or more HardHits over the last week, and while he only has one barrel in this stretch, he has hit three home runs, so he is also in home run hitting form. Overall, he has eight combined HardHits in his last three games alone.
Sean Burke is the White Sox starting pitcher for today, who is another pitcher that allows some pop to left-handed hitters. Burke has allowed a home run ever 19 at-bats to lefties over the last six weeks. Look for Pasquatch to clear a fence tonight.
Castellanos Breaks Out of Slump
Castellanos has been in an epic slump recently, but there are signs he is breaking out of that based on the way he was hitting the baseball yesterday. After struggling to hit anything with power recently, he had three total HardHits yesterday, all three of which were flyouts and two were 100+ mph EV. He had flyouts of 380 feet twice and another of 347 feet.
Hitting the ball hard is the first step towards hitting a home run but hitting them in the air is also needed to clear a fence. Castellanos did that three times yesterday, so the hope here is we are catching Castellanos as he goes on a home run spree, as opposed to catching it after the fact.
The pitching matchup is relatively unknown, with the Nationals young prospect Cade Cavaili starting today. He has only made two starts this year and pitched nine innings total. Granted, he has been decent, but the one home run he allowed was to a righty, with a high fly-ball rate of 37.50% allowed in this limited action.
One thing Castellanos can do is put the ball in the air, so here's hoping he can do that and send one out of the outfield tonight.