It’s a travel day for a lot of MLB teams, which means we have a lighter slate than normal for our home run picks. There are seven MLB games, with the schedule getting started early between the Mariners and Orioles at 1:05 pm ET.
For this article specifically, we will be diving into our favorite MLB HR prop bets for Thursday. There are MLB betting bonuses available for these picks on FanDuel, bet365 and Fanatics.
Best MLB Home Run Picks for Thursday
| Home Run Pick | Odds |
| Pete Alonso | +310 on bet365 |
| Kyle Stowers | +450 on Fanatics |
| Ezequiel Tovar | +500 on FanDuel |
Alonso Goes Yard at Citi Field
The Mets finish their series against the Braves tonight, and we like Alonso to hit a home run in this matchup. He has been hitting the ball well recently, with 12 HardHits and three barrels over the last seven days and nine barrels and 21 HardHits over the last 14. Those nine barrels ties him with the league lead in this two week stretch with one other batter and is one of only 13 batters with 21 or more HardHits in this same stretch.
From strictly a weather perspective, this is the best home run venue on the board today, with a +10% weather specific home run index. This is due to the relatively hot temperatures in the mid 80s throughout the game, along with slight winds blowing directly out of the stadium.
This is also a fantastic matchup from a pitching perspective, with Bryce Elder pitching for the Braves. Elder has struggled with the long ball this year, with the 11th-worst HR/9 of all pitchers that have thrown at least 100 innings and is worse against righties. This is also a fantastic from a pitch-mix perspective, with Alonso hitting all four pitches that Elder throws, so look for him to go yard tonight.
Stowers Sends One Deep for Marlins
Stowers has been somewhat unlucky in the home run department recently, with three barrels over the last seven days but no home runs to show for it. That bad luck continued last night when he had a double that was absolutely crushed, 104.5 mph off the bat at a 25 degree launch angle and traveled 372 feet. That would have been a home run in 10/30 stadiums, but unfortunately not at the Guardians stadium where he was last night.
That said, the good news is that Stowers has been hitting the ball hard, and if that continues the home runs are going to come for him.
He will be facing the Guardians starter Tanner Bibee, who has really struggled recently. He has allowed a home run every 18.50 at-bats over the last six weeks, struggling both at home and away. Typically, Bibee had been much better at home, but that has not been the case recently.
This is another situation where the pitch-mix of what Bibee throws lines up perfectly with what Stowers hits hard, so let's hope he can get some luck going long tonight.
Tovar Homers at Coors Field
Unsurprisingly, this game at Coors Field is the best home run venue of the day, considering both the stadium and the weather. Overall, this game has a +26% home run index, which is typical at Coors Field.
In terms of Tovar, he has been the unluckiest player in the MLB when it comes to barreling the ball up but not hitting home runs, having even worse luck than Stowers mentioned above. Tovar has seven barrels over the last two weeks, and zero home runs to show for it. He is the only batter with seven or more barrels and no home runs, with five of the seven batters having three or more home runs in this stretch.
To take it a step further, there are 28 batters with six or more barrels and he is still the only one with no home runs, and there are 52 batters with five or more barrels, and he is one of two batters with no home runs to show for it. So, Tovar is, quite literally, the unluckiest batter over the last two weeks when it comes to home runs.
Hopefully, that changes tonight with a good matchup against Diamondbacks starter Eduardo Rodriguez, who has allowed a home run every 17 at-bats over the last six weeks, with below-average numbers across the board in that stretch.