We are back to a full MLB slate on Friday featuring all 30 teams. That means there are plenty of options for our home run picks today.
Below, we explain our favorite HR prop bets for Friday, August 8th. We consider weather, pitching matchups and other factors for these wagers. Be sure to consider the MLB betting on the sportsbook apps mentioned to bet on dingers over the weekend.
MLB Home Run Picks for Friday
| Home Run Picks | Odds |
| Max Muncy | +325 on bet365 |
| Kerry Carpenter | +390 on bet365 |
| Hunter Goodman | +430 on FanDuel |
Muncy Goes Deep for the Dodgers
Muncy has only been back from an injury for a couple days, but one of those games involved him having three HardHits and two barrels. Oh, and he also managed to hit two home runs in that game as well. So, there do not seem to be any rust concerns for Muncy after missing over a month with a knee injury.
As for today, since we are still experiencing cold temperatures in a lot of places, this is one of the only positive weather games for a home run at Dodger stadium. Thanks to the mildly hot temperatures and low barometric pressure, this game has a +14% home run index from a weather + stadium perspective.
Max Scherzer is on the mound for the Blue Jays, who has had a Hall of Fame worthy career, but is not the same pitcher at this point in his career. On the year, he has allowed a home run every 17 at-bats, which is already a bad number that gets worse against lefties. He has allowed a HR to LHH every 14 at-bats on the year, which jumps up to every 12.75 at-bats over the last five weeks.
The two pitches that Scherzer throws the most frequently to lefties are the 4-seam fastball and changeup, which Muncy has fantastic numbers against with a .278 ISO rate against the 4-seamer from RHP and .313 ISO rate on the changeup. He goes yard tonight.
Carpenter Homers in Detroit
Carpenter is another lefty slugger who missed some time with an injury and has returned recently and has been fantastic in his return. Taking out his first game back, Carpenter has played eight games since returning from the hamstring injury, and he has four barrels and 12 HardHits in those eight games. He has a very good fly-ball rate of 47.4% and an excellent pull-rate of 63.2% in this stretch as well.
That pull-rate especially helps considering the dimensions of the Tigers home stadium, which has a relatively short right field. That combination has led to Carpenter having a .331 ISO rate at home compared to only .218 away.
He will be facing the Angels starter Kyle Hendricks, who has allowed a home run every 24 at-bats on the year. He has admittedly been worse against righties than he has against lefties, but this is still a matchup that should favor Carpenter.
From a pitch-mix perspective, there is a huge advantage in favor of Carpenter. Here are all four of the pitches that Hendricks throws to lefties, and Carpenters ISO rate against those pitches (in order of thrown most frequently to least frequently):
- Changeup: .229 ISO rate
- Sinker: .429 ISO rate
- 4-Seam Fastball: .329
- Curveball: .185
Goodman Goes Yard in Arizona
Common baseball wisdom suggests that it is not worth taking Rockies batters when they play away from Coors Field, as their numbers are juiced from playing in such a hitter-friendly environment. That said, that logic does not apply to Goodman, who has better power numbers away from Coors.
His slugging, OPS and ISO rate are all higher away than they are at home, which makes sense as he has hit more home runs away (13) than he has at home (9) in roughly the same number of at-bats. So, this is all to say that the home/away environment does not impact Goodman, who has a great matchup to go yard tonight.
Goodman has been hitting well recently, with nine HardHits and three barrels in his last four games alone. He is going up against Zac Gallen, who has been among the worst home run pitchers in the league this year. Gallen has the sixth-worst HR/9 in the MLB, allowing a home run every 19.50 at-bats to RHH on the year.
While we do not focus on batter vs. pitcher history a ton, it is worth noting that Goodman has six at-bats against Gallen this year and has one double and one HR in those plate appearances. Look for him to hit another one off Gallen.