It's Dinger Tuesday, which means bettors can make these home run picks with several sportsbook bonuses. With a full 15 game slate, there are plenty of matchups to analyze.
We got two of our three predictions correct yesterday thanks to Colson Montgomery and Tyler Soderstrom, so let's hope to keep the momentum. Below, we discuss our favorite MLB home run prop bets for August 12th.
Best MLB Home Run Picks for Tuesday
| Home Run Pick | Odds |
| Shea Langeliers | +240 on FanDuel |
| Juan Soto | +350 on bet365 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | +500 on bet365 |
Trust Langeliers to Go Yard Again
Langeliers has been on fire in the home run department recently, and he has a great opportunity to continue that run tonight. He has hit seven home runs over the last two weeks, which leads the MLB. There are a couple batters behind him with six, but none with more than that aside from Langeliers himself.
Not only that, but Langeliers leads the MLB in total barrels over the last week with seven, and is one of five batters with 13 or more HardHits in this same timeframe. He has been on fire, and that continued with the home run in yesterdays game. Including the home run that was crushed and traveled 430+ feet, he had three total hits yesterday with 100+ mph exit velocity. With the kind of run he is on, there are no fears taking him to go yard once again tonight in what is another positive situation.
As is typically the case, this game at Sutter Health Park is the best home run venue of the day from a weather and stadium perspective, with a +33% home run index.
Shane Baz is pitching for the Rays, who can get hit up by righties. On the year, Baz has allowed a home run every 20 at-bats to RHH, which jumps up to every 16.50 at-bats over the last six weeks. Langeliers hits another one tonight.
Back Soto at Citi Field
While the Mets as a team have been in free-fall recently, Soto himself has been hitting very well. He has three barrels in his last four games, and four barrels in his last six. The Mets had the day off yesterday, but on Sunday Soto had a great day at the plate with three HardHits and one barrel, including a lineout that was 107.5 mph off the bat and traveled 358 feet.
While this is not among the best home run venues of the day, it is still a good home run situation in general with high 70s/low 80s temperatures with double-digit winds blowing out of the stadium. Citi Field is not as impacted by winds as other stadiums, but it certainly can't hurt.
Soto will be facing off against Spencer Strider, who has been decent after missing a ton of time between last year and this year, but he can also be susceptible to giving up the long ball. On the year, Strider has allowed a home run every 22 at-bats to LHH, which jumps up to every 17 at-bats over the last six weeks. Opt-in to different MLB betting bonuses on FanDuel, including a home run bonus for this pick.
Guerrero Jr. Homers in Toronto
Like Soto and Langeliers, Guerrero Jr. is another batter that has done a fantastic job barreling the ball up over the last week, two weeks. He is one of 15 batters with seven or more barrels over the last 14 days and is one of 18 batters with four or more over the last week. So, while he is not leading the league, of course, he is still in pretty good company.
Toronto has solid hitting weather tonight, with temperatures in the mid to high 80s and low barometric pressure, with slight winds blowing out slightly to right field. All in all, this game at Rogers Centre has a +10% home run index, which is a solid number overall.
The Cubs starter for tonight is Ben Brown, who admittedly struggles more against lefties than right-handed bats such as Guerrero Jr. but is still not a pitcher to shy away from with a righty bat either. On the year, Brown has allowed a home run every 23.50 at-bats, and every 17 at-bats over the last six weeks.
He only throws two pitches to RHH, throwing a 4-seam fastball 60% of the time. Guerrero Jr, meanwhile, has fantastic numbers against the 4-seam FB with a 12%-barrel rate and 56% HardHit rate. He has not seen a ton of the knuckle curve from RHP, but overall, this is a matchup that should favor Guerrero Jr.