After getting two of our home run picks to cash yesterday, we are looking to stay hot with three more on the board today. With today being a Sunday, we have a bunch of day games to dive into. So, here are our favorite MLB home run predictions for today, June 15th.
Find MLB betting bonuses for these picks on FanDuel and DraftKings.
James Wood to Hit a Home Run (+420) FanDuel
Wood did not have any HardHits yesterday, but we can forgive him for that as the day before he had a total of four HardHits, including two barrels. In that game he had three hits above 109MPH EV, which is absurd. One of those traveled 451 feet, and he had another flyout that was 103.4MPH off the bat and traveled 370 feet. We've seen the kind of home run binges Wood can go on, which is what we are hoping is starting.
The pitching matchup is a little bit of an unknown, with Eury Perez on the mount for the Marlins. Perez has only made one start this year, and he only went three innings, and he was admittedly good in those three innings. He did not give up a home run, but he was hit relatively hard by lefties, granted in a small sample size.
Instead of backing a juicy batter vs. pitcher matchup, we are instead backing a hot batter with a 20%-barrel rate over his last 30 days, and a 30%-barrel rate against the 4-seamer which Perez throws 50% of the time.
Juan Soto to Hit a Home Run (+475) DraftKings
Soto is red hot at the plate, and he is going up against one of the worst home run pitchers in the MLB in Shane Baz of the Rays. Despite his home stadium being one of the best home run venues in the MLB, Bazs away HR/9 (1.96) is actually worse than his one at home (1.50). So, there are no concerns with him pitching in New York tonight.
Over his last five starts, he has allowed a barrel rate of 10.2%, with a HR/9 of 1.95. He is admittedly slightly worse against RHH than he is against LHH, but he is still bad against lefties so nothing to fear there.
He has allowed a home run every 17 at-bats against LHH in his last five starts. His biggest issue is the 4-seam fastball, which he throws over 55% of the time against lefties, and Soto has awesome numbers against 4-seam FBs with a 15%-barrel rate and 86% HardHit rate on the year.
Zach Neto to Hit a Home Run (+600) FanDuel
The Angels are going up against a lefty tonight, so we wanted to rock with a lefty killers on the Angels.
On the year, Neto has a barrel rate of 18.2% against LHP, and he has been good over the last month as well with an 18.8%-barrel rate and 68.8% HardHit rate in the last 30 days against lefties. He also has a 22%-barrel rate against the 4-seamer specifically, with a low ground-ball rate of 11%.
The 4-seam fastball is what he is going to see roughly half the time from Cade Povich, which is the biggest home run pitch for Povich as well. The Orioles bullpen also has a 10.6%-barrel rate against right-handed hitters, so if Neto does not get one off Povich he still has a great opportunity later in the game.